The Packers don’t have much margin for error when they open against Minnesota, and the numbers suggest their usual formula may not be the answer.
Green Bay’s standard approach under Matt LaFleur is built around balance: run the ball, set up play-action, and let the offense work off that structure. Against Brian Flores’ Vikings, though, that plan has not held up. The Packers have had far less success leaning into play-action in this matchup, and the gap is hard to ignore.
Per Sumer Sports, Green Bay has used play-action on only 17.4% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks against Minnesota. Against every other opponent, that rate jumps to 27.3%.
There is one notable exception. Love’s biggest play-action game against the Vikings was also his most efficient outing in the series, coming in 2023 during his strong second-half surge.
But the broader picture still points in the same direction. In 2024, Green Bay fell behind early in both meetings and was forced to move away from any meaningful run game.
In Love’s lone game in 2025, the Packers were extremely conservative overall, which also shaped those usage numbers.
Even with those caveats, the signal is still there: the Packers’ play-action game has been much less effective against Minnesota than it has been against the rest of the league. That leaves Green Bay with a simple but uncomfortable conclusion for Week 1 - if the line is shaky and the run game is unproven without Josh Jacobs, Love may have to carry more of the load than the Packers usually prefer.
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The early slate also looks more forgiving than what this team has had to navigate in other seasons, and that matters for a club trying to build momentum quickly. When the offense under Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love has had its core available, it has shown a steadier level of play, which is part of why there is some quiet confidence around this group. If the Packers can take advantage of this opening stretch, they could spend a lot less time surviving and a lot more time proving they belong in the conversation. [Read more 🡒]