The Packers walked away with a win on Sunday, but let’s be clear - they were one fourth-and-one decision away from a very different outcome. Credit to the defense for holding when it mattered most, but it’s hard to ignore how much Chicago’s ground game dictated the second half. And with a rematch looming at Soldier Field in two weeks, Green Bay’s coaching staff has some serious film to digest.
Let’s start with what made that second half so uncomfortable for Packers fans. Chicago didn’t break off any long runs - their longest designed run went for just nine yards - but that’s what makes their performance so troubling.
They didn’t need big plays. They just kept chipping away, staying on schedule, and grinding down the defense.
Green Bay’s D-line couldn’t get off the field, and the offense wasn’t doing them many favors with either lightning-quick scoring drives or short possessions that ended in punts. That imbalance added up - and fast.
By the numbers, Chicago’s run game was nothing short of elite. Their expected points added (EPA) per rush landed in the 92nd percentile at +0.18.
But that actually undersells how dominant the running backs were. Caleb Williams and Luther Burden each had one designed run that dragged the average down.
Strip those out, and the backs alone were averaging +0.22 EPA per rush. For context, the Colts - with Jonathan Taylor and one of the league’s top offensive lines - lead the NFL with just under +0.1 EPA per rush.
Chicago nearly doubled that on Sunday.
That kind of efficiency doesn’t happen by accident. Chicago’s offensive line has taken a huge step forward this season, especially in the run game.
They’ve become a top-tier unit, and it showed. On the year, the Bears now rank fourth in the league in EPA per rush (+0.01) and second in success rate (47%).
Against Green Bay, they blew those numbers out of the water: 67% success rate on designed runs, and 65% on early downs. That’s how they stayed ahead of the chains and kept the pressure off their rookie quarterback.
The result? Chicago faced six third-and-ones in the second half alone, and the game ended with a fourth-and-one - the play that ultimately tilted the outcome in Green Bay’s favor.
But that’s not a sustainable formula for the Packers. They were fortunate that Bears head coach Ben Johnson didn’t lean on the run when it mattered most.
Instead, he put the ball in Caleb Williams’ hands, and the Packers defense held up.
But let’s be honest - that’s not a gamble you want to rely on twice.
If Green Bay wants to sweep the season series, they’ll have to force Chicago into longer third-down situations. That means winning on early downs, plugging up running lanes, and making Caleb Williams beat them from the pocket in obvious passing situations. Because if the Bears can stay in third-and-short territory again, with that offensive line and that run game, it’s going to be a long afternoon at Soldier Field.
The Packers survived Round 1. But Round 2 is coming fast - and this time, they better be ready to stop the run.