Where the Packers Stand in the Super Bowl Picture After Micah Parsons' Season-Ending Injury
The Green Bay Packers’ 2025 season has taken some serious body blows, and the latest one may be the hardest to shake off. Losing Micah Parsons-arguably the most disruptive defender on the roster-to injured reserve is a gut punch. Combine that with injuries to tight end Tucker Kraft, center Elgton Jenkins, and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, and it’s clear the Packers are limping toward the postseason, both literally and figuratively.
So the question becomes: where does this leave Green Bay in the NFL’s Super Bowl hierarchy? The answer depends on who you ask-but the consensus paints a picture of a team on the fringe of contention, not at the center of it.
Simulation Says: Packers on the Outside Looking In
Let’s start with the playoff simulations from The New York Times / The Athletic. According to their model, the Packers have just a 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl-tied for ninth-best in the league.
That puts them behind nine teams overall, including four NFC squads. The Rams (19%) and Seahawks (12%) are the clear frontrunners in the conference, while the Eagles (6%) and 49ers (5%) are clustered in the same tier as Green Bay.
That 4% figure isn’t just a number-it reflects the reality that the Packers are going to be a long shot, especially given the state of their roster. With key playmakers on both sides of the ball sidelined, the path to four postseason wins feels steep. And if the bracket shakes out as expected, they’ll likely have to go through either the Rams or Seahawks just to reach the NFC Championship.
Vegas Gives Green Bay a Bit More Respect
The betting markets, though, are a little more forgiving. FanDuel gives the Packers +1200 odds to win the Super Bowl, translating to a 7.7% implied probability. That’s nearly double what the simulation model projects and puts Green Bay in the mix with teams like the Eagles (+1000) and just behind the Broncos and Bills.
DraftKings offers a similar take, listing the Packers at +1500 (6.3% implied probability). Again, the Rams and Seahawks lead the field, and Green Bay is grouped with the Patriots in a second tier of NFC hopefuls. It’s worth noting that neither FanDuel nor DraftKings places the 49ers ahead of the Packers, a contrast to what the simulation model suggests.
Kalshi Market: Packers in a Crowded Middle Tier
Over at Kalshi-a prediction market that functions similarly to a sportsbook-the Packers are given a 4% chance to win it all, mirroring the NYT/The Athletic model. That ties them with the Ravens and Jaguars and puts them in a logjam for ninth place overall. In the NFC, only the Rams (22%), Seahawks (12%), Eagles (9%), and Patriots (8%) are ahead of them.
Interestingly, Green Bay plays two of those similarly ranked teams-Baltimore and Chicago-over the next two weeks. The Ravens, like the Packers, are 7-7 and clinging to playoff hopes.
And while the Bears haven’t been given much of a shot at the Lombardi, they’re still very much in the hunt for the NFC North crown. That division race is still up for grabs, and the Packers will need to win out-and get some help-to secure it.
So Where Do the Packers Really Stand?
If we average out the data, the Packers are somewhere between the 6th and 11th most likely team to win the Super Bowl, depending on which model or market you trust. That’s not a bad place to be, all things considered-but it’s also not where Green Bay hoped to be when the season kicked off.
The real issue is the road ahead. Even if the Packers survive Wild Card Weekend, they’ll likely run into one of the NFC West juggernauts in the Divisional Round.
And with a roster this banged up, that’s a tall order. The Rams and Seahawks are both playing high-level football, and the Packers will need to be nearly perfect to pull off an upset in either scenario.
That said, this is still the NFL. Weird things happen in January.
We’ve seen backup quarterbacks string together miracle runs, and we’ve seen heavily favored teams fall flat when it matters most. But let’s be honest-this version of the Packers doesn’t look like a team built to win four straight playoff games against top-tier competition.
They’ve got heart. They’ve got talent. But with Micah Parsons now out for the year, they may not have enough firepower left to go the distance.
Still, as any football fan knows: never say never.