Why the Packers Should Think Twice Before Letting Quay Walker Walk
One Walker might be heading out of Green Bay, but the Packers would be wise to keep the other one around. Linebacker Quay Walker, a former first-round pick, is quietly putting together a resume that should have the front office thinking long and hard about his future in green and gold.
The Packers declined Walker’s fifth-year option last offseason, a move that now looms large with the linebacker heading into the final stretch of his rookie deal. But even without the long-term commitment, Walker has continued to show why he’s more than just a rotational piece - he’s a disruptive force with the kind of downhill aggressiveness that’s tough to find at his position.
A Playmaker with Production to Match
With three games left in the 2025 regular season, Walker has already racked up 443 career tackles, 28 tackles for loss, 8.0 sacks, and an interception. He’s not just piling up numbers - he’s making impact plays near the line of scrimmage and flashing the kind of athleticism that made him a first-rounder in the first place.
He’s the kind of linebacker who can shoot gaps, chase plays down from behind, and still drop into coverage when needed. That versatility, paired with consistent production, is what makes his next contract a fascinating case study.
What the Numbers Say About His Market Value
Projecting Walker’s 2025 season out over the full year, he’s on pace for 910 snaps, 115 total tackles, five tackles for loss, 46 defensive stops, and seven splash plays - a category that includes pass breakups, picks, forced fumbles, and sacks. His missed-tackle rate sits at 9.30 percent, and his stop rate is 5.03 percent.
Stack that up against Ernest Jones’ 2024 campaign - 995 snaps, 130 tackles, four TFLs, 48 stops, four splash plays, and similar missed-tackle and stop rates - and you start to get a picture of where Walker might slot in contract-wise. Jones landed a three-year, $28.5 million deal this past offseason, averaging $9.5 million per year.
That’s a solid benchmark, but Walker’s case gets even stronger when you zoom out.
A Two-Year Snapshot That Adds Context
Looking at the 2024 and 2025 seasons combined, Walker’s projected totals come to 1,657 snaps, 215 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 77 defensive stops, and 12 splash plays. His missed-tackle rate over that span is 9.07 percent, and his stop rate is 4.63 percent.
The closest comparison over a similar two-year stretch? Myles Jack in 2020-2021.
Jack posted 1,848 snaps, 226 tackles, nine TFLs, 83 stops, and seven splash plays. His missed-tackle and stop rates were right in the same ballpark.
Jack’s performance earned him a two-year deal worth $8 million per year. When you adjust for inflation and the rising salary cap, that comp suggests Walker’s deal could land in the $10.25 million to $11.5 million per year range - assuming a $300 million cap in 2026.
Could Walker Push for $15 Million Per Year?
It’s a fair question, especially in a league where top-tier linebacker play is increasingly rare. But the reality is, only six linebackers in the NFL are currently making $15 million or more per season. And every one of them had at least one season with a Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 60.0 or better in the three years leading up to their deals.
Walker hasn’t hit that mark since his rookie year in 2022. That’s not to say he’s been bad - far from it - but in terms of coverage metrics, he’s not quite in the elite tier that typically commands that kind of money. So while a $15 million payday isn’t impossible, it would require a significant shift in how the market values linebackers without elite coverage chops.
Projecting the Deal
Given the current state of the linebacker market - and the scarcity of top-end talent - Walker could still command a deal that pushes the upper end of his comp range. A four-year, $54 million contract averaging $13.5 million annually isn’t out of the question.
If he stays in Green Bay, a deal structured with $17.5 million fully guaranteed and $20 million paid out in Year 1 would be a smart way for the Packers to front-load the contract and protect themselves down the line. That could look like:
- 2026: $6.875 million cap hit
- 2027: $17.125 million
- 2028: $15.125 million
- 2029: $14.125 million
And in classic Packers fashion, they’d maintain flexibility. With guarantees limited to the first year, the team could move on after 2026 without taking a major cap hit - a key consideration for a franchise that values long-term financial health.
The Bottom Line
Walker may not be a household name, but he’s been a steady presence in the middle of the Packers’ defense - a position that’s notoriously hard to fill with reliable, three-down talent. His production, positional value, and draft pedigree all point to a player who deserves a serious look when it comes to a second contract.
Whether Green Bay decides to lock him up or let him test the market, one thing’s clear: Quay Walker is going to get paid. The only question is whether it’ll be the Packers writing the check.