NFC North Showdown: Packers, Bears Set for High-Stakes Rematch in Week 16
Saturday night at Soldier Field isn’t just another chapter in the NFL’s oldest rivalry - it might be the most consequential Packers-Bears matchup since the 2010 NFC Championship Game. With both teams sitting well above .500 - Green Bay at 9-4-1, Chicago at 10-4 - the stakes are sky-high. The winner takes control of the NFC North and grabs the conference’s No. 2 seed heading into the final stretch of the regular season.
This will mark just the third time ever - and the second this season - that these two storied franchises meet while both are at least five games over .500. And if their first clash in Week 14 was any indication, we’re in for another heavyweight battle.
A Look Back: Packers Edge Bears in First Meeting
In the first matchup at Lambeau, Jordan Love put together one of his most efficient performances of the season. He completed 17 of 25 passes for 234 yards and three touchdowns, carving up the Bears’ defense with poise and precision. Two of those scores went to Christian Watson, both coming against the blitz - a 23-yard strike and a 41-yard catch-and-run that showcased Love’s ability to read pressure and exploit it.
Caleb Williams, Chicago’s rookie quarterback, held his own with 186 yards and two touchdowns. But a late-game interception in the end zone by Keisean Nixon with just 22 seconds remaining sealed the win for Green Bay.
Now, with the division on the line and a playoff atmosphere already in full swing, both teams will need to lean on their stars - and adapt to some key changes.
3 Key Matchups to Watch in Packers vs. Bears, Round 2
1. Jordan Love vs. the Blitz - Again
The Bears brought the heat in Week 14, and Love didn’t blink. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he completed 8 of 11 passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns against the blitz - a season-best 63.6% success rate on those plays.
That kind of efficiency under pressure is no fluke. Love is averaging a career-high 8.4 yards per attempt versus the blitz this season, ranking fifth in the league.
That’s a big leap from his previous years and a sign of his continued growth as a field general.
Chicago will need to decide whether to stick with the aggressive approach or mix things up defensively. If Love gets comfortable again, he could pick up right where he left off.
2. Caleb Williams’ Mobility vs. a Parsons-less Defense
Williams kept Green Bay honest in the first meeting by extending plays and using his legs. On 12 of his 39 dropbacks, he either scrambled, ran, or threw on the move - the most Green Bay has faced in a single game this year. He didn’t light up the box score on those plays (3-for-9 passing, 62 yards; 13 rushing yards), but he moved the chains five times and kept the Packers’ defense off balance.
That said, Micah Parsons was a major disruptor in that game, recording seven pressures - the most by any defender against Chicago this season. With Parsons now out for the year due to a torn ACL, Green Bay’s pass rush will look different. That opens the door for Williams to have more time and space to operate, especially if the Packers don’t find a way to generate pressure through other means, like dialing up more blitzes with linebacker Edgerrin Cooper.
Green Bay has been elite at limiting quarterbacks on the ground - just 129 scramble yards allowed all season, tied for the fewest in the league - but they’ve been vulnerable through the air when plays break down. That’s where Williams could make a difference.
3. Josh Jacobs vs. Chicago’s Run Defense
Even with a lingering knee issue, Josh Jacobs continues to be the engine of the Packers' ground game. In Week 14, he ran for 86 yards and the go-ahead touchdown on 20 carries.
But it was more than just the stat line - it was the how. On a pivotal third-and-1 late in the game, Jacobs looked stuffed behind the line, only to bounce outside and rumble for 21 yards, setting up first-and-goal.
That kind of second-effort run had even Tom Brady asking, “How did he do that?”
Moments later, Jacobs punched in the game-winner, powering through contact on third-and-goal. With Parsons out, Green Bay will need Jacobs’ physicality and vision even more.
The Bears’ run defense ranks 23rd in the league, giving up 126.6 yards per game. If Jacobs can control the tempo and keep Williams off the field, the Packers’ offense becomes even more dangerous.
The Bottom Line: Who Has the Edge?
In Round 1, the difference came down to quarterback play. Love was calm, decisive, and efficient under pressure - traits that continue to define his breakout 2025 campaign. Williams showed flashes of brilliance but also the growing pains that come with being a young quarterback in big moments.
That composure gap could once again be the deciding factor. If Love continues to dissect the blitz and Jacobs keeps the chains moving, Green Bay has a clear formula for success. And with the division title hanging in the balance, expect the Packers to lean on what worked the first time around.
Prediction: Green Bay completes the season sweep and takes a firm hold of the NFC North.