ESPN’s numbers are backing a pretty unexpected result in Week 6: the Dallas Cowboys, not the Green Bay Packers, are projected to walk out of Lambeau Field with a win.
That’s not exactly the way the night sets up on paper. Green Bay is 3-2, fresh off a 31-7 rout of the Chicago Bears, and playing its second straight home game for the first time this season.
Dallas arrives at 2-3 after getting stunned at home by a previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. Still, ESPN Analytics gives the Cowboys a 52.5% chance to win, while the Packers sit at 47.1%.
The matchup has a familiar feel, too. It’s a rematch of last year’s Sunday Night Football game, the one that ended in a wild 40-40 tie. Micah Parsons won’t be on the field against his former team this time, but the setting is still prime-time under the lights at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay, meanwhile, is coming off the kind of win it had been chasing for a while: a convincing, two-plus-score victory. That matters after the Packers had to sit with the memory of their rough 35-14 loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3, their home opener on Thursday Night Football.
Dallas doesn’t have the prettiest resume at 2-3, but the Cowboys’ two wins are over the Washington Commanders and Houston Texans, and those teams are a combined 2-7-1. The Packers, on the other hand, have already shown they can handle one of their biggest rivals and now get another crack at a team that beat them into a tie last season.
The game also lands at a key point for Dallas. After this trip to Green Bay, the Cowboys head to Philadelphia for another primetime showdown, making this a stretch that could shape their season. They also haven’t won or lost two straight games at any point this year, though Green Bay has a chance to change that and hand them back-to-back losses for the first time since Weeks 14-16 last season.
For Green Bay, the schedule doesn’t offer much breathing room. The Packers don’t have a bye until Week 11, and after this one they head to Detroit in Week 7. Last year, after that tie with Dallas, Green Bay used its bye week and then ripped off three straight wins.
This time, ESPN’s model is betting on the Cowboys to be the one team that spoils the party in Green Bay.
In Other News...
Packers Rookie Adds New Fuel To Bears Rivalry After Blowout
The buildup to Packers-Bears had already taken on an edge before kickoff, and rookie Dani Dennis-Sutton helped underline just how personal it felt in Green Bays locker room. Speaking ahead of the game, he acknowledged the intensity of the rivalry and the tension surrounding the coaching staffs, while making it clear he was not going to repeat the private details of those conversations.
What mattered most, of course, was the response on the field. Green Bay backed up the chatter with a 31-7 win, answering remarks from Bears coach Ben Johnson in a way that fit the rivalrys long memory and short fuse, even if Dennis-Sutton left the exact contents of those coach-to-coach exchanges in-house. [Read more 🡒]
Packers Fans May Need To Wait Longer For Micah Parsons
Micah Parsons return remains on hold as the Packers move through another week without their pass-rush centerpiece, and the timing is starting to make the calendar itself part of the story. Green Bay had hoped to get its former Cowboys star back sometime in October as he continues recovering from a torn ACL, but the first chance to see him against Dallas in Week 6 now appears to be off the table.
Parsons arrived in Green Bay after being traded from Dallas in 2025 and quickly became the clubs sack leader before the injury stopped his momentum. For a defense that has already felt the absence, the bigger question is how long the wait will last, because the comeback window may be pushing deeper into the fall than anyone around the team wanted. [Read more 🡒]
Packers Suddenly Have A D-Line Decision That Could Matter Fast
The Packers came out of Week 5 looking sturdy up front after holding the Bears to seven points and 246 yards, but the injury picture on the defensive line has forced the front office to keep moving. With Javon Hargrave done for the season, Green Bay is suddenly shopping for depth at a spot that can change quickly, especially with Dallas and Detroit next on the schedule.
One of the first steps came with a workout for former Patriots defensive tackle Isaiah Iton, along with a physical as the Packers sort through their options. It is the kind of early-season roster tweak that can seem minor in the moment, but for a defense trying to stay intact through a tougher stretch, the timing makes the decision worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]