The Packers have put themselves back in the playoff conversation, but there’s still plenty of work ahead.
At 5-3 after last week’s 27-19 win over the Carolina Panthers, Green Bay has won four of its last five and moved into a spot that feels very familiar: the NFC’s seventh seed. If the season ended right now, the Packers would be headed to Minnesota to face the second-seeded Vikings. But nothing about the NFC picture is settled, and the numbers show just how tight things are.
According to The Athletic’s playoff projections, Green Bay has a 50 percent chance to make the postseason. Of those projections, 43 percent have the Packers landing a wild-card berth, five percent have them hosting a wild-card game, and only two percent have them climbing all the way to the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
That’s a step up from last week, when their playoff odds sat at 40 percent before the win over Carolina. The bigger issue is the Packers’ 1-2 record against the NFC North, which leaves them behind in the division race. Even so, this week offers a chance to make a real jump.
A win over the reigning AFC champion Patriots would push Green Bay’s playoff odds to 63 percent, while also nudging their chances of hosting a wild-card game up to seven percent. A loss would send those odds back down to 43 percent, essentially right back near where they were before the Panthers game.
New England comes into the matchup in a stronger position on paper, at least in terms of the conference race. The Patriots already hold an 82 percent chance of making the playoffs, a reflection of how top-heavy the AFC has become.
For Packers fans looking beyond Sunday, there are a few other games worth watching. The Washington Commanders will host the Los Angeles Rams in a matchup of teams currently outside the playoff field. A Commanders win would drop the Rams to 4-5 and lift Green Bay’s odds to 53 percent.
There’s also an NFC showdown between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. A Cardinals upset would have the same effect on the Packers’ playoff chances, bumping them to 53 percent.
Then there’s the NFC North watch. Green Bay fans will want the division rivals to stumble, with the Miami Dolphins facing the Detroit Lions, the Chicago Bears hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Minnesota Vikings taking on the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Those results wouldn’t move the Packers’ playoff odds dramatically just yet, but they would help their position in a division that has been the best in football so far.
The larger picture is clear: the NFC is crowded, and there won’t be room for every good team. The Packers have already shown they can win enough games to stay in the mix, but the mistakes that have cost them in their three losses are hanging over the season. With nine games left, they don’t have much margin for error, starting with Sunday’s trip to face a very good Patriots team.
In Other News...
Packers Secondary Is Giving Fans A New Reason To Believe
October brought a rare kind of recognition to the Packers secondary, with the NFL honoring both Evan Williams and Brandon Cisse for their work on the back end. Williams was named NFC Defensive Player of the Month after a stretch that included at least 40 tackles and three forced turnovers, while Cisse earned NFL Defensive Rookie of the Month after piling up 21 tackles, seven passes defended and an interception.
For a defense that has been trying to build more consistency under coordinator Jonathan Gannon, the awards say plenty about how much that unit has tightened up. The bigger takeaway for Green Bay is that the secondary is no longer just holding its own, it is starting to set the tone, and the league has noticed. [Read more 🡒]
Packers Made A Line Change That Could Matter More Than Expected
The Packers made a notable shuffle up front in Week 8, sliding Laken Tomlinson into the lineup at right guard. For a veteran with a long NFL rsum, it was still a different kind of assignment, one he has not spent much time handling, and the transition came with the usual challenges of limited practice reps and a new set of responsibilities on the fly.
Tomlinson said the adjustment has been difficult but has started to feel more natural with extra preparation. Green Bays decision was aimed at keeping him on the field alongside Aaron Banks, who returned at left guard, and it gives the Packers a look they clearly believe can hold up as the season moves forward. [Read more 🡒]
Packers Secondary Suddenly Has A Week 9 Problem Fans Should Watch
Keisean Nixons Week 9 status has suddenly become one of the more important injury developments for Green Bays defense. The veteran cornerback, who has been a key outside presence through the first eight games of the season, was downgraded in practice because of a groin injury he picked up in Week 8, putting his availability for Sundays matchup with the New England Patriots in doubt.
The Packers still have one more practice before making a final call, but the timing is less than ideal for a secondary that has leaned on Nixons steadiness on the outside. If he cannot go, Green Bay would have to adjust quickly against a Patriots offense that will be watching the same injury report closely, and the ripple effect could force the Packers to rethink how they line up on the perimeter. [Read more 🡒]