Packers Playoff Push: What’s at Stake in a Crucial NFC North Clash with the Bears
It’s a new week in Green Bay, and with just three games left on the schedule, the playoff race is heating up fast. After a tough loss to the Denver Broncos - a game that not only stung in the standings but also saw the Packers lose standout defensive end Micah Parsons for the season - the margin for error has shrunk. But the path to the postseason is still very much alive, and it runs straight through Soldier Field this Saturday night.
What’s on the Line This Week
The Packers (9-4-1) head into their Week 16 showdown with the rival Chicago Bears (10-4) with a 91% chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times’ simulator. That number jumps to over 99% with a win.
A loss? It drops to 83% - but even then, a little help from the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday could push Green Bay’s odds back up to 95%.
The math is simple: beat the Bears, and the Packers are nearly in. Win two of their final three, and they’re guaranteed a spot. And if they take care of business this weekend and the Lions (8-6) fall to the Steelers, Green Bay can clinch a playoff berth before Week 17 even kicks off.
The Magic Number Is Two
For Green Bay, the magic number is “2” - as in any combination of two Packers wins or Lions losses. Since Detroit is the only team left that can keep Green Bay out, the focus is squarely on what happens in both Chicago and Detroit this weekend.
A win over the Bears would move the Packers to 10-4-1. If the Lions lose to Pittsburgh, they’d fall to 8-7, and Green Bay would be in. Even if the Packers lose to Chicago, they can still make the postseason with a win in either of their final two games - against the Ravens or Vikings - and one Lions loss.
But there’s still a scenario where Green Bay could miss the playoffs: if they lose two of their final three and Detroit wins out. That would leave the Packers at 10-6-1 and the Lions at 11-6, just edging them out. But if Green Bay wins two, they finish 11-4-1 - a mark the Lions can’t top, even if they run the table.
Division Title Still in Play
The NFC North is still up for grabs, and the Packers are far from out of the race. The Bears currently sit atop the division at 10-4, with Green Bay right behind them.
If the Packers win Saturday and again in Week 17, and the Bears drop both games, Green Bay could leapfrog into first place. The Bears’ magic number to clinch the division is “3” - any combination of Chicago wins or Packers losses.
So while a loss this weekend would be a setback, it wouldn’t eliminate the Packers from division contention. But a win? That keeps everything - a division crown and a home playoff game - on the table.
What About the Bears?
Chicago’s playoff picture is also coming into focus. Despite leading the division, the Bears actually enter Week 16 with slightly lower playoff odds (83%) than the Packers. That’s largely due to their remaining schedule - which includes the 49ers and Lions - and the fact that they’ve already lost to Detroit this season, giving away the tiebreaker.
But if the Bears beat the Packers and the Lions lose on Sunday, Chicago punches its ticket to the postseason. That result would also give them a three-game lead over Detroit with just two to play, effectively eliminating the Lions from the division race.
A win Saturday would bump the Bears’ playoff odds to 96%. But the margin for error is narrow - if Chicago drops its final three games and Detroit wins out, the Bears could still miss the playoffs entirely.
Where the Packers Stand in the NFC
After the Seahawks’ thrilling 38-37 win over the Rams on Thursday Night Football, Seattle now holds the top seed in the NFC at 12-3. The Packers, currently the No. 7 seed, can climb as high as No. 2 with a win over the Bears. A loss would keep them locked into the final wild-card spot heading into Week 17.
Here’s how the NFC playoff picture looks heading into the weekend:
- Seattle Seahawks (12-3) - Clinched playoff berth
- Chicago Bears (10-4) - NFC North leader
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) - NFC East leader
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) - NFC South leader
- Los Angeles Rams (11-4) - Clinched playoff berth
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
- Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)
A win Saturday would vault the Packers up the board and give them a shot at hosting a playoff game. Right now, they’ve got a 43% chance of doing just that - and a 48% chance of staying in wild-card territory.
AFC Picture Taking Shape, Too
Over in the AFC, the Denver Broncos have emerged as the team to beat. Winners of 11 straight, they sit atop the conference at 12-2 and have already secured a postseason berth. The Patriots (11-3), Jaguars (10-4), and Steelers (8-6) round out the division leaders, with the Chargers, Bills, and Texans holding the wild-card spots.
Remaining Schedules: What Lies Ahead
Here’s how the final stretch looks for the NFC North contenders:
Packers
- Week 16: at Bears (Dec.
- Week 17: vs.
Ravens (Dec. 27)
- Week 18: at Vikings (TBD)
Bears
- Week 16: vs.
Packers (Dec. 20)
- Week 17: at 49ers (Dec. 27)
- Week 18: vs. Lions (TBD)
Lions
- Week 16: vs.
Steelers (Dec. 21)
- Week 17: at Vikings (Dec. 25)
- Week 18: at Bears (TBD)
The road ahead isn’t easy for any of these teams, but the Packers have a clear path. Win two, and they’re in. Win three, and they might just be division champs.
Bottom Line
Saturday night in Chicago is more than just another chapter in one of the NFL’s oldest rivalries - it’s a playoff game in everything but name. For the Packers, it’s a chance to bounce back, control their destiny, and take a major step toward January football. For the Bears, it’s an opportunity to tighten their grip on the division and lock in a postseason berth.
The stakes are high. The margin is slim. And the NFC North is far from settled.