NFC Playoff Picture: Packers on the Brink, Rams and Broncos Already In
We’re officially in the stretch run of the NFL season, and the playoff race is heating up fast. With just a couple of weeks left, the postseason picture is starting to take shape-but it’s far from settled.
Two teams have already locked in their playoff spots: the Los Angeles Rams at 11-3, and the Denver Broncos, who sit atop the AFC at 12-2. Everyone else?
Still fighting tooth and nail to punch their ticket.
Nine more teams have a chance to clinch in Week 16, and one of the most intriguing among them is the Green Bay Packers. Sitting in the thick of the NFC North race, the Packers have a couple of clear paths to secure a playoff spot this weekend-but they’ll need a little help along the way.
What the Packers Need to Clinch
Let’s break down the scenarios. Green Bay can lock in a playoff berth this week in one of two ways:
- Win against the Bears and see the Detroit Lions lose or tie against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Tie against the Bears and hope for a Lions loss to the Steelers.
So, yes, the Packers need to take care of business against a division rival in Chicago, but they’ll also be scoreboard-watching when Detroit takes on Pittsburgh. And here’s the twist-Detroit’s opponent is quarterbacked by none other than Aaron Rodgers.
That’s right. The Packers may need their old franchise cornerstone to come through against their division rivals.
Rodgers, for what it’s worth, has a career record of 18-8 against the Lions. Familiar foe.
Familiar stakes.
NFC North Title Race: Still Wide Open
The NFC North is still very much up for grabs, and the latest simulations from The New York Times and The Athletic give us a sense of just how tight it is:
- Chicago Bears: 52% chance to win the division
- Green Bay Packers: 43%
- Detroit Lions: 5%
The Bears hold the slight edge, but with two weeks left, this is far from over. Green Bay’s Week 16 matchup against Chicago could swing the balance in a big way.
Wild Card Chaos: Six Teams, Three Spots
If the Packers don’t win the division, the wild-card route is still very much in play-but it’s crowded. Here’s where things stand in the NFC wild-card race, according to the same simulations:
- San Francisco 49ers: 86%
- Seattle Seahawks: 69%
- Green Bay Packers: 47%
- Los Angeles Rams: 43%
- Chicago Bears: 32%
- Detroit Lions: 22%
Only three teams will make it in via wild-card spots, and with six teams in the hunt, every snap from here on out matters. The NFC East and South are essentially out of the wild-card picture, with each division likely sending just their champion to the postseason. That narrows the field and raises the stakes.
Projected NFC Playoff Standings
If the simulations hold true, here’s how the NFC playoff seeding could shake out by season’s end:
- Los Angeles Rams: 13-4
- Green Bay Packers: 11-5-1 (NFC North champs)
- Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6 (NFC East champs)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-8 (NFC South champs)
- Seattle Seahawks: 13-4
- San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
- Chicago Bears: 11-6
Just outside the bubble? The Lions at 10-7-good enough to make the playoffs in most years, but maybe not this one.
Also notable: if things play out this way, Green Bay would be the only division winner hosting a wild-card game against a team with a better record. That’s the kind of season it’s been-unpredictable, top-heavy, and full of drama.
Final Word
The Packers are right in the middle of one of the most competitive playoff races we’ve seen in recent years. Whether they get in this week or have to wait until Week 17, their margin for error is razor-thin. The same goes for the Bears, Lions, and everyone else fighting for those final NFC spots.
With old storylines resurfacing (hello, Aaron Rodgers vs. Detroit) and new ones emerging every week, the NFC playoff picture is setting up for a wild finish.
Buckle up. December football is delivering exactly what we hoped for.