Matt LaFleur is heading into his eighth season as head coach of the Green Bay Packers, and while the team has been a consistent playoff presence under his leadership, the ultimate goal - a Super Bowl - has remained elusive. Now, with a fresh extension from Packers president Ed Policy, the franchise is doubling down on its belief that LaFleur can still get them over the hump. But if history is any guide, the odds are stacked against him.
Let’s start with the historical context. Since the Super Bowl era began, only one head coach has ever reached his first Super Bowl after more than seven years with the same team: John Madden, who did it in his eighth season with the Raiders back in 1977. That’s a pretty exclusive club - in fact, it’s a club of one.
And when you look at the broader picture of Super Bowl-winning coaches, the pattern becomes even clearer. Of the 36 head coaches who have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, most didn’t wait long to do it.
According to data from Josh Dubow of the Associated Press, four coaches won it all in their first year, eight in their second, four in their third, seven in their fourth, and five in their fifth. That means 28 of the 36 champions got it done within their first five seasons.
After that window? The numbers drop off fast.
So where does that leave LaFleur? Well, he’s certainly not your average Year 8 coach.
He’s led the Packers to the postseason in six of his seven seasons, and he’s done it with a roster that’s been among the youngest in the NFL for three straight years. That’s no small feat, especially in a league where experience often defines playoff success.
And now, Green Bay has something else going for it: a franchise quarterback in Jordan Love who looks more and more like the real deal. Love’s growth in 2025 gave fans and the front office plenty of reasons to believe this team is still trending upward. Combine that with LaFleur’s offensive mind and steady locker room presence, and it’s not hard to see why Policy opted for continuity instead of a reset.
Of course, belief and production aren’t always the same thing. Just ask the Buffalo Bills.
They were in a similar boat with Sean McDermott - a coach who delivered consistent playoff appearances but never got over the Super Bowl hump. After nine seasons and no title game appearances, the Bills decided it was time to move on.
Green Bay, on the other hand, is betting that LaFleur’s ceiling hasn’t been reached yet.
There’s a case to be made for patience - and Andy Reid is the poster child for it. Reid didn’t win his first Super Bowl until his 21st year as a head coach and his seventh with the Kansas City Chiefs.
He reached the big game in his sixth year with the Eagles back in 2004 but didn’t return until he got another shot in Kansas City, where he finally broke through in 2019. That kind of long-term payoff is rare, but it’s not impossible.
This year’s playoff landscape only reinforces the historical trend. In the AFC, Mike Vrabel has the Patriots back in the AFC Championship in his first year at the helm. He’s facing Sean Payton, who’s in Year 3 with the Broncos and already has a Super Bowl ring from his time with the Saints - a title he won in his fourth season in New Orleans.
Over in the NFC, Seattle’s Mike Macdonald is in just his second year and already has the Seahawks in the conference championship. He’ll be coaching against Sean McVay, who took the Rams to a Super Bowl in Year 2 and won it in Year 5. All four of the remaining head coaches in the 2025-26 playoffs fit the mold of early success, further emphasizing how rare LaFleur’s situation is.
Still, Green Bay isn’t exactly starting from scratch. This isn’t a rebuild.
The foundation is there - a talented young core, a quarterback with upside, and a coach who’s proven he can win games. That’s probably why the front office felt comfortable sticking with LaFleur.
The Packers aren’t chasing a miracle; they’re betting on an outlier.
If LaFleur does manage to lead the Packers to a Super Bowl in 2026, it would be a significant break from the norm - but not an impossible one. The numbers may not be in his favor, but football isn’t played on spreadsheets. It’s played on the field, where momentum, chemistry, and timing can flip the script in a heartbeat.
So while history might be whispering that LaFleur’s time has passed, Green Bay is choosing to believe the story isn’t finished. And if he does defy the odds, he won’t just bring a title back to Titletown - he’ll carve out a place in NFL history as one of the rare coaches who proved that sometimes, patience really does pay off.