The Green Bay Packers’ defense has been one of the early surprises of the season, but Sunday brings a much stiffer exam.
Through five weeks, Green Bay sits eighth in EPA allowed per dropback and third in ANY/A value, even without Micah Parsons taking a snap. On the surface, that looks like a unit punching above its weight.
Underneath, the picture is less sturdy. The Packers are tied with the Seattle Seahawks for the league lead in interceptions, and that kind of turnover spike usually comes with some built-in randomness.
It also helps to look at who Green Bay has been facing.
That part matters. In Week 1, the Packers mostly dealt with Carson Wentz, the Vikings’ backup quarterback.
Weeks 2 and 3 brought Geno Smith and Michael Penix Jr., both starters, but Week 4 came against an undrafted rookie backup, and Week 5 included both a second- and third-string quarterback. When the opposition has been that uneven, the numbers deserve a healthy grain of salt.
The warning signs show up in the efficiency metrics. Green Bay is still eighth in EPA allowed per dropback, but it drops to 17th in success rate allowed through the air.
That’s against a schedule that has included mostly backup quarterbacks and a Jets passing game that ranks 20th in EPA-per-dropback and 19th in dropback success rate. By DVOA, the Packers defense has played the fifth easiest schedule in the NFL so far.
The gap from Green Bay to the top three is not that wide, but some of that can be explained by the fact that the Packers have seen two full games of snaps from Jalon Daniels, Tyson Bagent, and Case Keenum instead of Baker Mayfield and Caleb Williams. There’s also a pretty obvious difference, in this context, between Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray.
Now comes the test.
Dallas’ defense may be a mess, but its offense can still move. The Cowboys rank fifth in passing DVOA and fourth in EPA-per-dropback, and their receivers create problems in different ways.
Green Bay does not have the usual body type to deal with George Pickens’ size, while CeeDee Lamb’s ability after the catch could expose the Packers’ issues at cornerback with tackling. Jake Ferguson, the former Wisconsin Badger, is another problem for Green Bay’s linebackers.
With Zaire Franklin and Isaiah McDuffie described as stumpier thumping linebackers, expect to see just as much if not more Ty’Ron Hopper than the Packers used against Chicago.
And the schedule does not get any kinder. Before December, Green Bay still has to face Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Drake Maye, and Matthew Stafford, with Micah Parsons maybe back for the matchups with Maye and Stafford in November.
If the offense continues to click the way it has over the last two weeks - drops against Tampa aside - the big question is whether the defense can keep generating enough stops while the turnovers inevitably cool off and the quarterbacks get better. The Packers do not need this defense to be elite, especially without Parsons.
They just need it to be good enough to support an offense that can win games through the air.
Across from them Sunday will be a team that knows exactly what happens when that plan breaks down. Green Bay needs to make sure it doesn’t meet the same fate.
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Packers Fans May Need To Wait Longer For Micah Parsons
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Parsons arrived in Green Bay after being traded from Dallas in 2025 and quickly became the clubs sack leader before the injury stopped his momentum. For a defense that has already felt the absence, the bigger question is how long the wait will last, because the comeback window may be pushing deeper into the fall than anyone around the team wanted. [Read more 🡒]
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One of the first steps came with a workout for former Patriots defensive tackle Isaiah Iton, along with a physical as the Packers sort through their options. It is the kind of early-season roster tweak that can seem minor in the moment, but for a defense trying to stay intact through a tougher stretch, the timing makes the decision worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]