Pro Football Focus has long tried to do the hard thing in football: isolate what one player actually did, even when the sport keeps dragging in 10 other bodies to muddy the picture. That mission still makes sense. But the gap between PFF’s grades and what shows up on the field feels wider now, and a few recent Packers examples make that hard to ignore.
Take Dani Dennis-Sutton. The rookie has been a force, especially for a fourth-round pick.
He has 20 total pressures on only 143 pass-rushing snaps, which ties him for 24th among 150 qualifiers. Only Trey Hendrickson and Green Bay’s Brenton Cox have more pressures in fewer snaps.
Dennis-Sutton also ranks well in hurries and is one of just 13 edge rushers with a pass breakup this season.
And yet PFF has him at a 60.4 pass-rushing grade, good for 87th, with his overall mark barely better. There’s room to argue he loses some ground against the run, but putting him in the middle of the pack as a pass rusher makes no sense. Acme Packing Company has paid close attention to Dennis-Sutton because he was the rare draft crush who actually landed on the team, but that doesn’t mean the player gets a pass when the grading looks off.
Ty’Ron Hopper is the other glaring case. With Zaire Franklin and/or Edgerrin Cooper injured, Hopper stepped in against the Panthers on Thursday and stuffed the stat sheet with an interception, a sack and three passes defended.
He was all over the field. He was also graded as the third-lowest Packer defender, ahead of only Javon Bullard and Carrington Valentine.
That grade doesn’t line up with what Hopper did. He was in the right spots in coverage, tackled cleanly and showed the kind of versatility an off-ball linebacker has to have.
Sure, interceptions can sometimes be fluky, but this wasn’t one of those nights where the numbers were lying. Tyler Brooke’s breakdown of the game backs that up.
If someone wants to argue Hopper was merely average and got help from the players around him, fine. Calling him the third-worst defender on the team is a stretch.
That’s really the issue with PFF right now. A good model should mostly land where you expect it to, while still throwing in a few surprises that make you look twice. When the surprises start piling up, the model starts losing trust.
PFF’s quarterback grades are doing that too. The site has Tyler Shough and Geno Smith ahead of Jordan Love and Caleb Williams, with Love sitting 15th overall and Williams 13th.
Love’s numbers are down this season, so a lower ranking can be defended on pure production. But the whole idea behind PFF is supposed to be that it sees through the mess of the Packers’ offensive line and gives Love some credit for what he’s dealing with.
Instead, the grades are leaving more questions than answers. That’s a shame.
In Other News...
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Packers May Have A New Linebacker Problem In The Best Way
The Packers have managed to keep their defense on track even while dealing with injuries at linebacker, and the next stretch could say a lot about how deep that room really is. With Edgerrin Cooper and Zaire Franklin sidelined, Isaiah McDuffie and Tyron Hopper have been asked to carry more of the load, and the unit has held up well enough to keep Green Bay from feeling the full weight of those absences.
Hopper, in particular, has started to look like more than a fill-in. His recent impact showed up all over the field, from tackles to disruption in coverage and even splash plays in the backfield, which is the kind of production that can complicate a coachs rotation once everyone is healthy again. Franklin is expected back soon, but if Hopper keeps stacking strong performances, the Packers may have a new kind of linebacker question on their hands. [Read more 🡒]