Brian Gutekunst has had his share of wins in free agency, but even the best GMs eventually swing and miss. And when the Green Bay Packers handed guard Aaron Banks a $77 million deal, fans hoped it wouldn’t be one of those misses. Fast forward, and the reality has set in: this one didn’t pan out the way they’d hoped.
Now, the Packers are staring down a tough decision - one that’s not just about performance, but about dollars, depth, and the delicate balancing act of building a contender around a young quarterback.
The $18.1 Million Question
Let’s start with the financials, because that’s where this story really begins. Aaron Banks is due $18.1 million in cash for the 2026 season. If the Packers keep him, that’s effectively what they’re agreeing to - a one-year, $18.1 million bet that he can bounce back and anchor the interior of the offensive line.
Would you make that bet? That’s the question Packers brass has to answer.
From a cap perspective, releasing Banks now only frees up $4.6 million this offseason. Not exactly a windfall.
But the bigger picture is about long-term flexibility. Cutting ties now means avoiding massive cap hits down the road - specifically, $22.25 million in 2027 and $20.75 million in 2028.
That’s significant breathing room for a franchise that’s trying to stay nimble and competitive.
Of course, that $20.25 million in dead cap this year is a tough pill to swallow. But sometimes you take a short-term hit to avoid long-term pain.
The Roster Ripple Effect
Here’s where things get complicated. It’s not just about Banks. The Packers could lose three other starting offensive linemen this offseason: Rasheed Walker, Sean Rhyan, and Elgton Jenkins.
Walker is expected to cash in big on the open market - and he’s likely gone. Jenkins?
The Packers can save nearly $20 million by moving on, and that cap space might be too tempting to pass up. Rhyan is the most likely to return, with a projected deal around $6.5 million per year - affordable, but still a decision that needs to be made.
So if all three walk, and Banks is cut too, that’s four starting spots up for grabs. That’s not just a shuffle - that’s a full-blown rebuild.
Jordan Morgan showed enough flashes to be penciled in as a potential replacement for Walker at left tackle. Anthony Belton held his own late in the season at right guard.
But beyond that? The cupboard looks pretty bare.
Left guard and center would be wide open, and there’s no clear in-house solution waiting in the wings.
That puts an enormous amount of pressure on Gutekunst to reload quickly - through free agency, the draft, or both. And remember: the Packers don’t have a first-round pick this year after the Micah Parsons trade. That limits their options in a big way.
Banks Showed Flashes - But Was It Enough?
To be fair, Banks wasn’t a total disaster. Once he got healthy late in the year, there were moments - brief ones - where he looked like the player the Packers thought they were getting.
But moments don’t justify a top-tier guard contract. Not when you’re trying to protect a young quarterback and keep a playoff-caliber offense on track.
This isn’t just about one player. It’s about how his contract - and his performance - fits into the bigger picture.
Can the Packers afford to keep Banks at that number? Probably not.
But can they afford to lose him with so much uncertainty across the line? That’s the dilemma.
A Rare Miss - With Major Consequences
Gutekunst has earned a reputation as one of the league’s sharper talent evaluators, especially when it comes to finding value in free agency. But the Banks deal stands out as a rare misfire - one that now forces a tough decision with no easy answer.
Keeping Banks means betting big on a player who hasn’t lived up to the price tag. Cutting him means swallowing a hefty cap hit and potentially gutting the offensive line even further.
There’s no simple fix here. Just a high-stakes offseason puzzle that will test Gutekunst’s ability to navigate cap constraints, roster turnover, and the ever-present pressure to win now.
One thing’s clear: the Packers have a major decision to make. And whichever path they choose, it’s going to shape the future of this team - and their quarterback - in a big way.