The Packers have already climbed out of the bottom tier in the national power rankings, and Week 6 is where the numbers start to get interesting. Green Bay sits at 3-2 after back-to-back wins, and while it’s still early enough to avoid full-blown playoff math, the NFC picture is already starting to take shape.
After that Thursday Night Football loss to the Atlanta Falcons that sent the Packers to 1-2, most national analysts had them lurking near the bottom 10. FOX Sports stayed the coldest on Green Bay, but even there the assessment was simple enough: the blowout win over the Bears came out of nowhere, the offense finally showed signs of life, and Jordan Love’s play - along with an improving defense - has been enough to get the Packers back to 3-2.
FOX Sports also pointed out the obvious issue. The Packers still can’t really run the ball, and that remains the thing holding them back. Their note on the upcoming stretch was blunt too, with the Cowboys, Lions and Panthers next on the schedule.
Not everyone was that restrained. Pro Football Talk made the biggest move on Green Bay this week, with Mike Florio jumping the Packers from No. 23 to No. 11.
The standings in the NFC tell the bigger story. The Vikings and 49ers are both 5-0.
The Giants sit at 3-1-1. Then comes a crowded middle: the Panthers, Packers, Lions, Bears and Seahawks are all 3-2.
That means Green Bay is currently the top wild-card seed, but only barely, with the fifth through eighth spots all tied at 3-2 and the Rams right behind at 2-3 in the ninth spot.
The Packers still do not control their own path. Even if Green Bay wins out and Minnesota wins out except for a Packers loss, the Vikings would still be seeded ahead of them. So, yes, the short version really is this: root for Minnesota losses.
The Athletic’s playoff projections paint a cautious picture for Green Bay. The Packers have a 38 percent chance to reach the postseason and an 11 percent chance to win the NFC North, both the lowest figures in the division. In more than half of The Athletic’s simulations, when Green Bay gets in for the 2026 season, it lands as one of the final two seeds in the NFC.
Across the full conference, The Athletic lists the playoff odds this way: 95% for San Francisco, 77% for Minnesota, 71% for Seattle, 69% for the Rams, 63% for Detroit, 56% for Chicago, 51% for Carolina, 44% for Atlanta, 40% for Dallas, 38% for Green Bay, 30% for Philadelphia, 28% for the Giants, 17% for Washington, 12% for New Orleans, 9% for Tampa Bay and less than 1% for Arizona.
The wildcard outlook is where the league’s shape really comes into focus. The Athletic’s simulations show a strong chance that the NFC’s three wildcard spots come from the North and West, with the Seahawks and Rams together showing up 55 percent of the time, the Bears at 37 percent, the Vikings and Lions at 35 percent, and the Packers at 27 percent.
The 49ers land there 25 percent of the time. After that, the numbers drop off fast.
That setup leaves two divisions clearly behind the others. The NFC East and NFC South are still stuck playing catch-up while the North and West look far stronger. Right now, all four NFC North teams would qualify if the season ended today, and the simulations suggest a real battle ahead for those final spots.
Week 6 only sharpens that race. The Athletic’s leverage numbers - the difference between a team’s playoff odds with a win versus a loss - put Packers-Cowboys at 21 percent, tied with Bears-Falcons and Rams-Cardinals for the most impactful game in the NFC this week.
Green Bay would jump from a 27 percent playoff chance with a loss to 48 percent with a win. That’s a massive swing for a game that might look ordinary on paper.
The Packers are tied with the Bears and Rams for the most high-leverage spot on the schedule, but the Rams get a much softer setup against an Arizona team that’s basically buried. Green Bay’s game with Dallas is much less forgiving.
There is also a clear best-case scenario for the Packers this week. If that happens, Green Bay’s playoff chances rise to 52 percent even with the Lions and Vikings on a bye. If the week breaks the other way, those odds fall to 25 percent.
In Other News...
Packers Film Room Shows The Shot That Finally Hurt Chicago
The Packers film from their game against the Bears shows a clear idea once the defense handed them the ball: go right back at Chicago before it could settle in. Green Bay kept leaning into deep passing after interceptions, looking to turn sudden momentum swings into immediate damage, and the approach gave the offense a chance to attack the Bears while they were still sorting out the coverage.
Matthew Golden was part of the answer on one of those snaps, giving the Packers the kind of field-flipping gain that can change the feel of a sequence in a hurry. The play fit the larger theme of the tape, with Green Bay trying to stress Chicagos back end immediately after turnovers and punishing any lapse before the Bears could recover. [Read more 🡒]
Packers Suddenly Have A WR Duo Changing Everything On Offense
Green Bays passing game has found a rhythm through the first five games, and a big reason is the growing connection between Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. The two receivers have quickly become the clear focal point of the offense, giving Jordan Love reliable targets who bring different strengths but seem to fit together naturally. Their chemistry has helped the Packers stretch the field and keep defenses guessing, while Love has kept the attack moving at one of the leagues better clips.
The early returns are hard to ignore, with Love piling up 1,408 passing yards and 10 touchdowns as the offense leans more and more on its top two wideouts. Watson and Golden are not just producing separately, they are changing the way Green Bay can structure drives and attack coverage. What makes it even more intriguing is how quickly this duo has gone from promising to indispensable, and the next question is whether opponents can find an answer before the Packers passing game gets even harder to contain. [Read more 🡒]
Brandon Cisse Just Gave Packers Fans A Real Reason For Hope
The Packers Week 5 win over the Bears had plenty going for it, starting with Jordan Loves efficient passing night and a team record for passing yards against Chicago at Lambeau Field. But tucked inside the bigger offensive performance was a quieter development that should matter to Green Bay going forward: rookie cornerback Brandon Cisse held up well in coverage and continued to flash the kind of physical tools that made him an intriguing project in the first place.
Cisse has had some early-season bumps, so this wasnt a case of one clean afternoon erasing every concern. Still, his work against Bears rookie Malik Muhammad stood out in a game the Packers controlled, and it added another data point to the idea that Green Bay may have found a young defender who can grow into a real role. For a defense looking for reliable help on the back end, that kind of progress is the sort of thing worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]