The Packers’ 2025 4th-and-short menu was tiny, but it still told a clear story.
Green Bay averaged 0.8 4th & Short plays per game, which tied for seventh in the league. The Panthers led that group at 1.2, followed by the Raiders at 1.1. The Lions, long viewed as one of the NFL’s more aggressive teams in these spots, were right there too at 1.0.
The numbers came with the usual small-sample warning. There just isn’t much room for error when a team only has 20 or fewer plays in a given situation over the course of a season.
One bad snap can warp the entire picture. Still, the Packers held up pretty well overall.
Their 69.2% success rate tied for 14th in the league, right alongside the Rams and just behind the Ravens at 70.0%. They were more dangerous than that number suggests, though, because their explosive play rate checked in at 23.1%, which ranked sixth.
The more interesting split was how they chose to attack. Green Bay passed on 53.8% of its 4th-and-short plays, which ranked 15th.
That part feels like a spot to clean up. When the Packers threw, they were highly efficient, posting an 85.7% success rate that ranked fourth.
When they ran, the success rate dropped to 50%, which ranked 26th.
That lines up with the bigger picture from the season. The Packers were a better passing team than a running team, and the 4th-and-short numbers reflected that plainly.
The best concept in this slice was Two Man Stick. Green Bay used some version of it three times, more than any other concept on 4th & Short, and it emerged as the clear favorite.
That makes sense. It’s a quick-game staple, something the offense knows well, and it works fast enough for the quarterback to get the ball out at the top of a 3-step drop. At the same time, it still gives the offense some flexibility.
At its most basic, Stick features two receivers working quick outs 3-5 yards downfield. The inside receiver can either stay on the out or break back into a quick hitch, depending on the defender’s leverage.
On 4th downs this season, the Packers also liked building in a corner route over the top, which gave the quarterback another option in the same part of the field. If the defense crowded the Stick routes, the ball could go to the corner.
That showed up in the clips, including one where Jordan Love found Tucker Kraft. Kraft got outside leverage and created separation at the top of the route, giving Love a clean target on 4th down.
With only 13 plays in this section, there wasn’t much to choose from, but Stick stood out for a reason. It was quick, familiar, and versatile. That’s a strong combination.
Mesh got a mention too, and for good reason. The Packers ran it once on 4th & Short, and it turned into a 22-yard touchdown. That’s the kind of result that grabs your attention.
But the play itself was doing less of the heavy lifting than the final execution. Love had to make a ridiculous throw, and Dontayvion Wicks had to finish the job with a tough catch and get just enough of that second foot down. It was a gorgeous play, but not the kind you’d want to lean on as your weekly answer.
Mesh is also a longer-developing concept than Stick, and the overall track record for the Packers on that look hasn’t been especially friendly in recent years. One big hit doesn’t change that.
So for 2025, the verdict is pretty simple: Green Bay was better on 4th and short than it had been in previous seasons, and the passing game was the driving force behind it.
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