With just one week left in the 2025 NFL regular season, what was shaping up to be a dramatic, high-stakes finale now looks more like a formality than a frenzy. A few short weeks ago, Week 18 had all the makings of a classic-division races tight, wild-card spots wide open, and marquee matchups with playoff implications across the board. But the NFL moves fast, and the picture has changed dramatically.
Let’s start with the playoff math: 11 of the 14 postseason spots are already locked in. And depending on how things shake out this weekend, the entire playoff field could be finalized before Week 18 even kicks off. That’s not exactly the kind of suspense fans were hoping for when the schedule first dropped.
Here’s how we got here.
In the NFC North, what once looked like a thrilling three-way battle between the Bears, Lions, and Packers has fizzled out. The Detroit Lions, coming off a 15-win campaign last year and entering 2025 with sky-high expectations, were officially eliminated after falling to the Minnesota Vikings. That loss capped a disappointing slide for Dan Campbell’s squad, who couldn’t replicate the magic of their breakout season.
Over in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs-yes, Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs-were knocked out of the playoff hunt back in Week 15. Mahomes’ season-ending ACL injury was a gut punch, and without their star quarterback, the Chiefs just couldn’t stay afloat. That opened the door for teams like the Colts and Texans to make a push, but even that drama is starting to fade.
The AFC North still has some intrigue, but it’s hanging by a thread. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens were on a collision course for a win-or-go-home showdown in Week 18, but even that might not materialize.
Lamar Jackson is expected to miss Saturday’s game against the Packers, and there are whispers of tension between him and head coach John Harbaugh. If the Ravens drop that game and the Steelers beat the Browns, Pittsburgh takes the division outright-no drama required.
Meanwhile, in the NFC South, the Carolina Panthers have emerged as a surprise contender. According to Darin Gannt, they can clinch the division with a win over the Seahawks and a Buccaneers loss to the Dolphins. Not bad for a team few expected to be in this position at the start of the year.
And then there’s the final AFC wild-card spot. The Houston Texans are in control of their own destiny.
A win gets them in. But even if they stumble, they could still back into the playoffs with a Colts loss to the Jaguars.
So what does all this mean for Week 18? If the Dolphins, Packers, Panthers, and Jaguars all win this weekend, the playoff picture will be completely set.
No tiebreakers. No win-and-in thrillers.
Just a slate of games with nothing on the line but pride-and maybe a few draft positions.
It’s a rare scenario in the NFL, where parity usually keeps things interesting until the very end. But this year, the drama might be over before the final curtain even rises.