Week 1 always comes with a little static. Rosters have been reshaped, coaches have changed, and last year’s numbers don’t always line up neatly with what a team is now. Still, there are a few numbers worth watching when the Packers line up against the Vikings.
The clearest place to start is the deep ball. Last season, Green Bay ranked fifth in the league in deep passing, defined as throws that travel 20 or more yards downfield.
Minnesota, meanwhile, finished 28th against the deep pass. That matchup jumps off the page.
The Vikings were far sturdier when opponents worked underneath, ranking sixth against short passes and third against intermediate throws.
Christian Watson makes that even more interesting. When he was on the field last season, Jordan Love averaged 10.2 air yards per attempt.
When Watson was off the field, that number dropped to 7.8. Love threw five touchdowns on passes of 20-plus yards last season, and three of them went to Watson.
One more came on a play with Watson on the field. In other words, Love had just one deep touchdown all year without Watson out there.
Watson’s own numbers from the back half of the season tell the same story. From Week 8 on, he averaged 17.6 air yards per target, the second-most among qualifying receivers in that span. He also had nine receptions on deep passes, which led the league over that stretch.
And then there’s Brian Flores and the blitz. Flores is known for bringing pressure, and Love handled it well last season.
He posted an EPA per play of +0.30 against the blitz, tied for best in the league with Matt Stafford. For reference, Drake Maye led the league overall at +0.25.
Love’s time to throw when blitzed was 2.78 seconds, a sign that he wasn’t simply settling for the first quick answer. His deep-throw rate against the blitz was 13.2%, fifth in the NFL.
He can drift away from pressure and throw off his back foot, and he doesn’t seem to get rattled when defenses send extra rushers.
In Other News...
Matt LaFleur Put Packers Leadership Under Fire With Josh Jacobs Response
Josh Jacobs legal issue surfaced earlier this year when the Packers running back pleaded no contest to two misdemeanor charges tied to a domestic incident, and the matter has lingered around the team ever since. Matt LaFleur faced the questions in a press conference and stood by Jacobs, offering support and vouching for his character while the organization itself has remained publicly quiet about where it stands.
For a team that has spent the offseason trying to keep the focus on football, the contrast is hard to miss: the head coach has already put his position on record, but the broader Packers response has never really been spelled out. With Jacobs still part of the conversation and LaFleur clearly willing to speak on his behalf, the unresolved part is how much further, if at all, the franchise plans to go in addressing the situation. [Read more 🡒]
Packers Just Pulled An Unusual Bo Melton Move Before Week 1
The Packers made a roster move with Bo Melton that fits the strange rhythms of the NFL calendar, releasing the wide receiver while keeping him close in the organization on the practice squad. Green Bay still plans to have him on the 53-man roster for Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings, a sign that the team sees him as part of the early-season depth it wants available in the passing game.
Melton has been with the Packers since they drafted him in 2022, and his time in Green Bay has already included a little bit of everything, from work as a receiver to a brief stint at cornerback. For now, the move underscores how the Packers are trying to preserve flexibility while keeping a familiar piece around, even if the path to opening day looks a little unconventional. [Read more 🡒]
Packers Opener Just Got Much More Unsettling Up Front
The Packers opener against the Vikings already had plenty of early-season intrigue, and the injury report only added to it. Left guard Aaron Banks and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele are both questionable with knee issues, leaving Green Bay with uncertainty on the edges of its offensive line as it heads into a divisional game where protection and continuity matter right away.
TyRon Hopper is also listed as questionable with an Achilles tendon issue, while defensive tackle Warren Brinson has already been ruled out because of a calf injury. Minnesota, meanwhile, enters the game without anyone on its injury report, a small but meaningful contrast as Green Bay waits to see how much of its front will actually be available when the season kicks off. [Read more 🡒]