NFL MVP Race Heats Up: Drake Maye Takes the Lead, But Prescott and Love Are Climbing Fast
After dismantling the New York Giants on Monday night, the New England Patriots are sitting at 11-2 - the best record in the NFL. But beyond the team success, there's a new frontrunner in the MVP conversation: Drake Maye. The second-year quarterback has officially leapfrogged Matthew Stafford to become the odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP.
Maye now holds -120 odds, making him the first player this season to carry better-than-even odds to take home the league’s most prestigious individual award. Stafford, who had been the favorite last week at -235, has slipped to +115, signaling a tightening race at the top.
This shift in the MVP odds is a reminder of just how fluid this race can be. Voter-based awards like MVP often come down to more than just stats - they hinge on narratives, moments, and momentum. And right now, Maye is building a compelling case as the centerpiece of a New England resurgence.
But he’s not alone in making noise.
Dak Prescott and Jordan Love Are Surging
Don’t look now, but Dak Prescott is making a serious push. Just a week ago, Prescott was way down the board with +25000 odds - a less than 1% implied chance of winning MVP.
After a statement win over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Thanksgiving Day, Prescott has vaulted all the way to third in the MVP odds at +1500. That’s a massive leap, and while he’s still a long shot, the trajectory is undeniable.
Prescott is in his 10th NFL season, and by all accounts, he’s playing the best football of his career. His command of the Cowboys’ offense has been sharp, and the continuity with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has paid off. Add in a healthy season and arguably the league’s best wide receiver duo in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, and you’ve got a recipe for elite quarterback play.
If Dallas can run the table - which would mean beating the Eagles and Chiefs in a five-day span and finishing the season on an eight-game win streak - Prescott’s case becomes very real. An 11-5-1 finish while leading the most visible franchise in football? That’s MVP-worthy territory.
And then there’s Jordan Love.
The Packers’ young quarterback has quietly engineered an 8-3-1 start for Green Bay and is now tied with Prescott at +1500 in the MVP odds. Just last week, Love was sitting at +6000 - a 1.6% implied chance. But after a strong Thanksgiving Day win over the Lions, he’s officially in the conversation.
Love’s numbers are solid: 2,794 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. He’s taking care of the football and making big plays when it counts.
But the road ahead is anything but easy. The Packers face a tough stretch with games against the Bears, Broncos, another meeting with the Bears, and a matchup with the Ravens.
That stretch could either derail Love’s MVP hopes - or catapult him into the top tier.
Maye vs. Stafford: The Heavyweights at the Top
While Prescott and Love are making noise, the top of the board still belongs to Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford.
Stafford has been a touchdown machine this season, leading the league with 32 scores through the air. Maye, meanwhile, leads the NFL in passing yards with 3,412 and has been the steady hand guiding the Patriots through a 10-game winning streak.
Critics will point to New England’s soft schedule, but the Patriots have done what good teams are supposed to do - win. And they haven’t lost since September. With a bye this week, followed by games against Buffalo, Baltimore, the Jets, and Miami, Maye has a chance to solidify his MVP case down the stretch.
Stafford’s Rams, on the other hand, are coming off a surprising loss to the Panthers, dropping them to 9-3. The Rams still have a manageable path with games against Arizona, Detroit, and Seattle - but any more slip-ups could open the door for someone else to steal the spotlight.
The MVP Race Is Far From Over
What looked like a two-man race just a week ago is suddenly a lot more interesting. Maye and Stafford are still the favorites, but Prescott and Love are surging at the right time. And with big games on the horizon, the MVP picture could shift again in a hurry.
It’s not just about numbers anymore - it’s about moments, momentum, and leading your team when it matters most. December football is here, and so is the real MVP race.