NFL MVP Race After Week 16: Stafford Holds the Top Spot, Maye Surges, Allen Slides
Week 16 in the NFL didn’t just shake up playoff positioning-it also brought clarity to the league’s MVP race. With just two weeks left in the regular season, a few familiar names are jockeying for position, while others are fading at the wrong time. From Matthew Stafford’s Thursday night fireworks to Drake Maye’s prime-time comeback, here’s where things stand heading into the final stretch.
1. Matthew Stafford - Still the One to Beat
Let’s start with the man at the top. Matthew Stafford may have taken a loss in Week 16, but his performance was anything but a setback.
The Rams quarterback threw for a staggering 457 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-37 overtime thriller against the Seahawks. That’s not just a big game-it’s the kind of performance that cements MVP candidacies.
Stafford’s connection with rookie sensation Puka Nacua continues to be one of the most dangerous in the league, and despite the Rams likely heading into the postseason as a wild card, Stafford’s level of play is elite. He’s been the engine of one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, and even in defeat, he reminded everyone why he’s still the frontrunner.
2. Drake Maye - The Clutch Gene Is Real
Drake Maye’s growth this season has been one of the most compelling storylines in football. On Sunday night, the Patriots’ young quarterback turned in another signature moment. After throwing a costly red-zone interception early, Maye responded with poise and precision, leading two fourth-quarter touchdown drives to erase an 11-point deficit and beat the Ravens 28-24 under the lights.
Maye’s skill set is already among the league’s best-his pocket presence, accuracy, and athleticism are well beyond his years. But it’s the timing of his excellence that stands out.
He’s been at his best when the Patriots have needed him most, and that’s the kind of trait that wins MVPs. With New England still holding off Buffalo in the AFC East, Maye is right in the thick of this race.
3. Justin Herbert - Statement Made
Justin Herbert didn’t just play well in Week 16-he dominated. The Chargers quarterback lit up the Cowboys for 300 yards and two touchdowns through the air, plus another 42 yards and a score on the ground. His +0.72 EPA per dropback wasn’t just the best of the week-it was a league-leading, MVP-caliber performance.
Now at 11-4, the Chargers are just one game back of the Broncos in the AFC West, and Herbert is a big reason why. The eye test and the numbers are finally aligning, and if he can keep this momentum going into a potential division-deciding Week 18 matchup, his case could grow even stronger.
4. Josh Allen - Slipping at the Wrong Time
Josh Allen has had his moments this season, but Week 16 wasn’t one of them. Against a tough Browns defense, the reigning MVP struggled, finishing 12-of-19 for just 130 yards in a narrow 23-20 win. His -0.45 EPA per dropback was the second-worst among all qualified passers this week.
Allen’s physical toughness can’t be questioned-he was clearly playing through pain-but this late in the season, production matters. The Bills are still alive in the AFC East, but they’ll need help from the Patriots’ upcoming opponents to have a shot at the division. Allen will get another chance to make a statement in Week 17 against the Eagles, but he’s now playing catch-up in this MVP race.
Falling Out: Jordan Love
Jordan Love’s MVP hopes took a major hit on Saturday night. The Packers quarterback left the game against the Bears in the first half with a concussion and did not return. Backup Malik Willis filled in admirably, but Green Bay couldn’t overcome Chicago’s relentless attack.
With the Packers now on the brink of elimination from the NFC North race and Love’s status uncertain for Week 17 against the Ravens, his MVP momentum has stalled. Combine that with a dip in production, and he’s sliding out of serious contention.
Honorable Mentions
- Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - Quietly consistent, but needs a signature moment.
- Myles Garrett (Browns) - Still a game-wrecker, and a Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) - Emerging as a key weapon in Seattle’s offense.
Final Word
With two weeks left, Stafford remains the MVP favorite, but Maye and Herbert are closing fast. Allen’s path is still open, but it’s narrowing. As the playoff race heats up, so does the MVP battle-and if Week 16 was any indication, we’re in for a wild finish.