NFL Week 16 Playoff Clinching Scenarios: Broncos, Rams Lead the Charge, But There’s Still Plenty on the Line
With Week 15 in the books, the playoff picture is starting to take shape-and for the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams, things are already looking bright. Both teams punched their postseason tickets this past weekend, becoming the first two squads to officially clinch a spot in the 2025 NFL playoffs.
But don’t think for a second that either team is easing up. Week 16 brings even more at stake, with division titles, top seeds, and home-field advantages still very much in play. Let’s break down what’s on the line across both conferences as we head into a pivotal weekend of football.
AFC Playoff Picture
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are riding high after locking in a playoff berth, but they’ve got their eyes on a bigger prize: the AFC West title-and potentially the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Here’s what needs to happen:
- To clinch the AFC West: Denver needs to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars and get some help from the Dallas Cowboys, who host the Los Angeles Chargers earlier in the day.
If the Chargers lose or tie, and the Broncos win later in the afternoon, the division is theirs.
- To clinch the No. 1 seed: It’s a longer shot, but still in play.
Denver must beat Jacksonville and also needs the Patriots to lose, plus a loss or tie from both the Chargers and Bills.
It’s a bit of a parlay, but the Broncos are officially in position to control their destiny down the stretch.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s thrilling comeback win over the Patriots in Week 15 gave them a crucial edge in the AFC playoff race. They can’t lock up the AFC East just yet, but they can secure a postseason berth this weekend.
Here’s the path:
- To clinch a playoff spot: Beat the Browns and get a loss or tie from either the Colts or Texans.
- If they tie: They can still clinch if either the Colts or Texans lose.
The Bills play early Sunday, so they'll be scoreboard-watching into the late window and Monday night.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are in a strong position-because they don’t need help to get in.
Here’s the scenario:
- To clinch a playoff spot: A win or tie against the Ravens gets it done.
- If they lose: They’ll need either the Colts or Texans to lose or tie.
It’s been a few years since New England was in the postseason, but they’re one solid performance away from ending that drought.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville’s path to the playoffs is clear, but the AFC South crown will have to wait.
Here’s what’s on the table:
- To clinch a playoff berth: Beat the Broncos and get a loss or tie from either the Colts or Texans.
- If they tie: They’ll still get in if either the Colts or Texans lose.
It’s a tall task against a surging Denver team, but the Jags have a shot to return to the postseason for the first time since 2022.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are still in the hunt for the AFC West, but they’ll need help-and it starts with taking care of business in Dallas.
Here’s how they can clinch:
- To clinch a playoff spot: Beat the Cowboys and get a loss or tie from either the Colts or Texans.
- If they tie: They’ll need the Colts to lose, or the Colts to tie and the Texans to lose.
As for the division, the Chargers need the Broncos to drop one of their final two games. If that happens, and the Chargers win out-including a Week 18 rematch with Denver-they could steal the AFC West crown.
NFC Playoff Picture
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are all but guaranteed a playoff spot, but now it’s about locking up the NFC East.
Here’s the math:
- To clinch the division: Beat the Commanders on Saturday.
- If they lose: They can still win the division if the Cowboys fall to the Chargers.
- If they tie: They’ll need the Cowboys to tie or lose.
It’s a straightforward path for Philly, who could be the first team to officially wrap up a division title this season.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have been on a rollercoaster in December, but they’re still in control atop the NFC North.
Here’s what’s on the line:
- To clinch a playoff spot: Beat the Packers and hope the Lions lose or tie against the Steelers.
- If they tie: They’ll need a Lions loss.
Chicago can’t clinch the division just yet, but they can punch their postseason ticket with the right mix of results.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are clinging to the NFC’s seventh seed, and they’ve got a shot to lock up a playoff berth this week-though they’ll need help.
Here’s the scenario:
- To clinch a playoff spot: Beat the Bears and get a Lions loss or tie.
- If they tie: They’ll need a Lions loss.
Green Bay is still in the mix for the NFC North, but their best bet is to focus on securing a wild-card spot first.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers could be in the playoffs before they even take the field Monday night.
Here’s how:
- To clinch a playoff spot before playing: A Lions loss to the Steelers on Sunday gets it done.
- If the Lions tie: A 49ers tie on Monday night would also be enough.
Of course, San Francisco can make it simple by just beating the Colts on the road Monday night and locking in their spot with no outside help.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle’s Thursday night showdown with the Rams is one of the biggest games of the week-and not just because of the NFC West rivalry.
Here’s what’s at stake:
- To clinch a playoff spot: Beat or tie the Rams.
- If they lose: They’ll need the Lions to lose or tie on Sunday.
While they can’t clinch the division or the No. 1 seed just yet, the Seahawks are in a dead heat with the Rams at 11-3. A win would not only secure a playoff berth-it would significantly boost their odds of taking the NFC West.
Eliminated Teams
A number of franchises have already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, including:
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Miami Dolphins
- Cincinnati Bengals
- New York Jets
- Cleveland Browns
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Tennessee Titans
- Minnesota Vikings
- Atlanta Falcons
- New Orleans Saints
- Washington Commanders
- Arizona Cardinals
- New York Giants
Meanwhile, the Cowboys and Lions are teetering on the edge. Here’s what could knock them out:
- Cowboys: Eliminated if the Eagles win, or if the Cowboys lose. A tie in both games would also eliminate them.
- Lions: Eliminated with a loss and if the Bears-Packers game ends in a tie.
Final Thoughts
Week 16 is shaping up to be a defining chapter in the 2025 NFL season. While some teams are already in, others are fighting tooth and nail for their shot at the postseason. From division titles to wild-card scrambles, and from top seeds to spoiler roles, the drama is only getting started.
So buckle up-because the playoff chase is about to hit full throttle.