Packers vs. Bears: A Rivalry Renewed with Real Stakes on the Line
For the better part of three decades, the Packers have owned the rivalry with the Bears. Since Brett Favre first suited up in green and gold, Green Bay has gone 51-16 against Chicago - a staggering run of dominance in the NFL’s oldest rivalry. And now, as the 211th meeting between these two franchises approaches, it feels like we might finally have a real battle on our hands again.
Yes, we’ve seen a few false dawns in Chicago before. Hints of momentum, flashes of promise - only to watch it all unravel.
But this Bears team? There’s something different brewing.
With a smart coaching staff, a young quarterback finding his rhythm, and a roster that’s quietly building into something formidable, Chicago is starting to look like a team that can stick around.
Turnovers Fueling the Bears’ Resurgence
Let’s start with what’s powering this rise: takeaways. The Bears lead the league with 26 of them, and they sit at a jaw-dropping +17 in turnover differential.
For context, the next-best teams are sitting at +9. That’s not just good - that’s game-changing.
Sure, there’s always some luck baked into turnover numbers, but Chicago’s secondary is doing more than just getting lucky bounces. Al Harris, a name Packers fans know all too well, is coaching that unit, and his fingerprints are all over their aggressive style.
Nahshon Wright has been a revelation at corner, stepping in off the bench and nabbing eight takeaways - enough to earn him NFC Defensive Player of the Month. Kevin Byard, once thought to be past his prime, has six picks of his own.
This group is opportunistic, and they’ve been the difference in tight games. That’s been critical, because outside of the secondary, this defense has struggled.
They rank near the bottom in most major metrics, and the numbers back it up.
A Statement Win and a Real Test Ahead
A few weeks ago, it was hard to take the Bears too seriously. They were 8-3, but with a negative point differential and a schedule full of backup quarterbacks.
That changed on Black Friday. Their 281-yard rushing performance against the Eagles - one of the league’s toughest front sevens - turned heads.
That wasn’t a fluke. That was a statement.
Now they’ll face a Packers defense that’s been stout against the run, but will be without key interior lineman Devonte Wyatt. That’s a big blow. Green Bay will lean on a mix of young talent - Karl Brooks, Warren Brinson, Colby Wooden, Nazir Stackhouse - and newly acquired Jordon Riley to fill the void.
Quay Walker’s return at linebacker is a boost, especially given how well Isaiah McDuffie has held things down in his absence. But there’s concern in the secondary.
Slot corner Javon Bullard missed practice with an ankle injury, and while Nate Hobbs may be ready to return, he doesn’t bring the same dynamic presence Bullard does. That could be a factor, especially if the Bears keep it close late.
Can Caleb Williams Handle Lambeau in December?
This will be a big test for Caleb Williams. The rookie has had his moments - some dazzling throws, some head-scratching misses - but Lambeau in December is a different beast. The cold, the crowd, and a pass rush that doesn’t let up will all be coming for him.
Micah Parsons will be a major problem for Chicago’s offensive line, particularly rookie left tackle Ozzy Trapilo. He’s the third man to try and lock down that spot this season, and while he’s shown improvement, he’s about to face one of the league’s most relentless edge rushers. That matchup could define the afternoon.
Williams’ legs make him dangerous, and he’s shown he can extend plays and punish defenses that overcommit. But Green Bay has been excellent at containing mobile quarterbacks, allowing just 108 rushing yards to QBs all season. That’s no accident - they’re disciplined, fast, and they swarm.
The Packers’ Offensive Blueprint
On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s offense is quietly rounding into form. Jordan Love has been lights out on third downs - the top-rated QB in the league in those situations - and that could spell trouble for a Bears defense that ranks last in pressure rate on third downs.
The Bears’ front has struggled all year, giving up 5.2 yards per carry and ranking in the bottom tier in both PFF’s run defense grade and ESPN’s run stop win rate. That’s music to the ears of Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson, who should find plenty of running lanes behind Green Bay’s reshuffled interior offensive line.
If Jayden Reed is activated off IR in time, it could open up even more for this offense. Reed has been the Packers’ most consistent receiver over the past two seasons, and his return would give Matt LaFleur more flexibility in the middle of the field - especially with tight end Tucker Kraft still working his way back. Add in the emergence of Dontayvion Wicks and Christian Watson’s recent hot streak, and this passing game has the potential to shine.
Key Questions Heading into Sunday
There are three big questions heading into this one:
- How aggressive will Love and LaFleur be against a secondary that’s been feasting on turnovers? Green Bay has the fewest giveaways in the league, so this is strength vs. strength.
- Can the Bears’ run game control the clock and keep Love on the sideline? That’s likely their best shot at pulling off the upset.
- Will the Packers get Reed back in time to stretch the Bears’ defense? If so, it could be a long afternoon for Chicago.
History Favors the Packers - But This One Feels Different
Matt LaFleur is 11-1 against the Bears - the lone loss coming in last season’s finale when Love exited early. That record stings in Chicago, and Bears head coach Ben Johnson didn’t hide it, saying he’s “kinda enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year” in his introductory press conference. You better believe that quote’s been pinned up in the Packers’ locker room all week.
But talk is cheap. If Johnson wants to flip the script, his defense has to keep forcing turnovers, and his offense has to stay on schedule. The Packers are nearly unbeatable at Lambeau in December - LaFleur is 20-4 in the month - and this Bears team hasn’t been tested in that kind of environment.
They’ll get another crack at Green Bay in two weeks under the lights at Soldier Field. But this Sunday, the Packers are deserved favorites. They’ve got the better quarterback, the better pass rush, and the home-field edge.
If Love and Micah Parsons play to their potential, Green Bay will remind Chicago that while the rivalry might be back - the crown still resides in Wisconsin.