The Chicago Bears are heading into Saturday’s rematch against the Green Bay Packers with more than just a divisional rivalry on their hands - they’re limping in, literally and figuratively. The injury report reads like a list of players the Bears can least afford to lose, and it’s coming at a time when their offense is still trying to figure itself out around rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
Let’s start with the big blow: Rome Odunze, Chicago’s top deep threat and their best shot at explosive plays downfield, aggravated a lingering foot injury during last week’s frigid pregame warmups and has been ruled out. That’s a tough loss, especially when you consider what Odunze brings to the table.
He’s averaging 15 yards per catch - not the most efficient target, but when the Bears need a chunk play, he’s the guy they look to. Without him, stretching the field becomes a lot harder.
Then there’s Luther Burden III, the rookie who’s been a revelation since midseason. He’s also out with an ankle injury.
Burden has quietly become one of the most productive receivers in football since November 9th, consistently drawing targets and delivering after the catch. He’s caught 76.6% of his passes, averaging 13.3 yards per reception - and 7.1 of those yards are coming after the catch.
That’s elite-level YAC production, and it’s come at a time when the Bears’ passing game has desperately needed someone to step up.
And now, D’Andre Swift is questionable with a groin strain. Swift isn’t just a key piece in the run game - he’s been the Bears’ most consistent YAC generator in the passing game, catching over 70% of his targets and averaging a ridiculous 11.2 yards after the catch. That kind of production usually comes from screen passes or quick throws behind the line, and Swift’s ability to turn those into near first downs is a huge reason the Bears have been able to keep the offense afloat.
All of this matters because of Caleb Williams. The rookie quarterback has had a rough go of it in his first NFL season, and the numbers back that up.
He’s last in the league in completion percentage, and it’s not just a case of bad luck - he’s also dead last in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE), which adjusts for the difficulty of throws. There’s a wide gap between him and the next-lowest quarterback on that list, J.J.
McCarthy.
To be fair, Williams does have some positives. He’s averaging 11.8 yards per completion, which is seventh among qualifying quarterbacks.
But here’s the catch: his air yards per completion is only 5.9. That means a lot of those yards are coming after the catch, not through the air.
In other words, his receivers - and the scheme - are doing a lot of the heavy lifting. It’s a formula that can work, especially under a creative play-caller like Ben Johnson, but it depends heavily on having YAC monsters like Swift and Burden on the field.
If those guys aren’t available, the structure around Williams starts to crack.
And when it does, the limitations in his game become harder to hide. Williams is completing just 58% of his passes. Without Swift’s screen game, Burden’s underneath explosiveness, and Odunze’s vertical threat, the Bears’ offense could grind to a halt.
The depth behind those three is a mixed bag. Kyle Monangai is a solid runner and can handle early-down work, but he’s struggled in the passing game - four drops on just 18 targets is a red flag. Olamide Zaccheus likely steps into Burden’s slot role, but he’s also had drop issues and doesn’t offer the same after-the-catch juice, averaging just 3.5 YAC per reception.
That leaves DJ Moore, who’s still a name fans recognize, but the production hasn’t been there lately. Two seasons ago, Moore was a star - 96 catches, over 1,300 yards, and eight touchdowns.
But last season, the Bears tried to simplify things for Williams, and Moore’s average depth of target dropped to 7.3 yards. This year, it’s back up to 12.2, but the efficiency hasn’t returned.
His contested catch rate is up, which suggests he’s not separating as well, and his yards per route run is below Odunze’s despite a better catch rate. Moore’s still capable, but he’s not the dynamic weapon he once was - and he doesn’t replace what Odunze or Burden bring.
The Bears’ offensive identity this season has revolved around hiding their quarterback’s growing pains. They’ve leaned on the run, they’ve leaned on YAC-heavy designs, and they’ve leaned on a talented group of skill players to make life easier for Williams. That’s why, despite ranking dead last in CPOE and 28th in success rate, Williams still sits a respectable 21st in EPA per play - thanks in large part to his own mobility and the work his receivers do after the catch.
But with Odunze and Burden already ruled out, and Swift’s status hanging in the balance, that formula is in danger of falling apart. And while the Packers are dealing with injuries of their own, the Bears can’t afford to come into this one short-handed.
If Chicago’s key playmakers can’t go, it’s going to put a lot on the shoulders of a young quarterback who’s still learning the ropes - and on a coaching staff that’s going to have to dig deep into the playbook to find answers.