With Gonzaga’s roster still waiting on four players to clear eligibility, the preseason picture is messy - and the analytics are all over the map.
That uncertainty is hanging over Mark Few’s team just as exhibitions and the Nov. 2 opener against Purdue are coming fast. Gonzaga is one of several programs dealing with the same issue, including LSU ahead of its Nov. 14 nonconference trip to Spokane for a game at Numerica Veterans Arena, as court cases around the country continue to shape the status of a large group of fifth-year seniors for 2026-27.
All of that makes the annual task of ranking more than 300 teams before the season starts even trickier than usual.
On Sunday, Ken Pomeroy released his preseason rankings, and Gonzaga landed at No. 14 at KenPom.com. Pomeroy’s model projects the Zags with the nation’s No. 7 adjusted offense and No. 21 adjusted defense.
In a Substack post explaining the process, Pomeroy said this season’s rankings were especially complicated because so many players are still stuck in eligibility limbo.
“This was the most challenging year to do ratings because of the eligibility uncertainty hanging over so many players,” Pomeroy wrote. “For the initial release, I am assuming that all players listed on a team’s official roster are eligible.”
For Gonzaga, that means the model is built on the assumption that Xaivian Lee, Chauncey Wiggins, Javon Bennett and Izan Almansa all suit up. Lee, Wiggins and Bennett are fifth-year hopefuls pursuing eligibility through lawsuits in California, Georgia and Ohio, while Almansa is waiting on NCAA approval for an eligibility waiver as an international transfer.
Pomeroy’s game-by-game projections have Gonzaga favored in all but two regular-season matchups. The two toughest calls on the schedule are Dec. 19 against Michigan State, where Gonzaga has a 45% chance to win, and Feb. 20 against Duke in Detroit, where the Zags are at 29%. His projected record for Gonzaga is 22-6 overall and 13-3 in the Pac-12 Conference, though that doesn’t necessarily match the total from each individual game prediction.
Other models are also buying in on this group, even if the roster remains unsettled. Gonzaga brings back forward Braden Huff and wing Davis Fogle, and it added center Massamba Diop from Arizona State and guard Isiah Harwell from Houston.
Evan Miyakawa’s Bayesian Performance Rating has Gonzaga with real top-10 upside whether the four players in limbo are available or not. His preseason rankings, updated Sept. 18, include separate views for a fully eligible roster and for a team with none of those players cleared.
At EvanMiya.com, Gonzaga sits at No. 6 when all of those players are counted and No. 9 when they are excluded. In Miyakawa’s individual player ratings, Huff is the only Zag inside the top 50, while Fogle is No. 59 and Lee is No. 60.
BartTorvik.com is in the same neighborhood, ranking Gonzaga No. 17 while also assuming the four uncertain players will be on the roster throughout the regular season.
As more preseason numbers roll out, Gonzaga will get another read from ESPN’s BPI and from human voters in the Associated Press Top 25 and USA Today Coaches Poll.
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That matters because this roster is still being defined around returning pieces and transfer additions after some offseason departures, and the early numbers suggest there is real work to be done to match the programs usual standard. The Zags are lined up for a demanding run of opponents, and the first few months may say plenty about how quickly this group can turn talent into a team. [Read more 🡒]
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