Set your alarms: the British Open opens Thursday morning at Royal Birkdale, and the cut line is already the angle worth watching.
Because this is the final men’s major of the year, the weekend picture matters just as much as the trophy chase. The first hurdle is surviving Friday, and that’s where the betting board gets interesting.
The last time Royal Birkdale hosted the British Open, in 2017, the cut line landed at +5. Even with the course changes and the conditions expected this week, the expectation is that the layout will play a few strokes tougher than it did then.
Still, the read here is that the winning score should rise while the cut line stays put at +5.
That makes the cut market a place to hunt for value, and Matt Wallace stands out as a name to back. He missed the cut at last week’s Scottish Open, but that result comes with a clear asterisk: he lost over two strokes per round with his putting, which is not typical for him. Wallace has played in six British Opens and made the cut in four of them, and that track record is enough to trust him again this week.
Pick: Matt Wallace to Make the Cut (-150) via DraftKings
Jon Rahm, on the other hand, looks like a strong candidate to be on the wrong side of the line. He missed the cut at the U.S.
Open and followed that with a T36 at the Scottish Open. In both starts, he gave away significant strokes with his irons and also lost strokes around the greens.
That’s a rough combination heading into a major. Rahm also finished T34 at last year’s British Open, and the current form makes him a live miss-cut play at +280 among the top names in the field.
Pick: Jon Rahm to Miss the Cut (+280)