The Warriors’ season may be decided before Christmas.
That’s the blunt truth hanging over a franchise that has built a decade’s worth of success around fast starts. In the Stephen Curry era, Golden State has usually been at its best when it gets through the first 30 games above .500 - a checkpoint that typically lands around the holiday stretch.
Since 2012-13, the Warriors have reached the postseason eight times in nine seasons when they were winning at that stage. When they’ve been at or below .500, they’ve missed the playoffs in three of five years, including twice in the last three.
So if the first two months go sideways, the rest of the season could get away from them in a hurry.
That’s why the 2026-2027 outlook from ESPN matters. About a month ago, the outlet projected Golden State for 35 wins and 47 losses, slotting the Warriors between the Phoenix Suns (42-40) and the Utah Jazz (34-48) in the Play-In mix for the fourth straight year. After an offseason that mostly amounted to adding Georges Niang, Brandon Williams and rookie first-round pick Yaxel Lendeborg to a Play-In roster, that forecast doesn’t look hard to swallow.
Steve Kerr and Gary Payton II have both already tried to frame the group in a more upbeat light. Each has embraced the “non-contender” tag that has followed the Warriors around, and both have even compared this version of the team to the 2022 championship group.
But comparisons only go so far. If Golden State is going to make anything resembling that kind of run, it has to survive the early months while waiting for injured wings Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody, both of whom have begun light on-court work, to get closer to the trade deadline.
That makes the opening stretch more than just important. It makes it the whole story.
The numbers from recent years drive the point home. In 2021-22, the Warriors stormed out to a 24-6 start.
During the dynasty years from their first title in 2015 through the third in 2018, they never dropped more than six games in their first 30. This group is obviously not that group.
Still, the formula is familiar: if you want a shot at making noise in April and May, you can’t waste the games you’re supposed to win.
Golden State did that too often last season.
Three losses stand out as especially hard to explain. On Oct. 30, the Warriors lost to a Milwaukee Bucks team without Giannis even though Curry, Jonathan Kuminga and Jimmy Butler each scored at least 20 points. To make it sting more, former Warrior Ryan Rollins went off for a then-career-high 32.
Two nights later came what might have been their worst loss of the year: an Indiana Pacers team that was 0-5, playing the second night of a back-to-back, and missing Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, Obi Toppin and T.J. McConnell. Golden State had a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter and still walked out with another loss.
Then, in mid-December, the Warriors dropped a game to a Timberwolves team without Anthony Edwards despite 39 points from Curry.
Those are the kinds of nights that can wreck a season before it ever finds its footing. And this year’s schedule gives Golden State plenty of chances to avoid that trap, at least early.
Before the 30-game mark, the Warriors will face at least seven teams that finished last season with more losses than wins, including three meetings with the Memphis Grizzlies. With the roster as it stands, the target has to be simple: stay at or above .500 through that first 30-game stretch.
That won’t happen unless Curry stays on the floor. Last season, he missed 39 regular-season games because of a lingering runner’s knee injury, and Golden State went 13-26 without him. Over the past three seasons, the Warriors have lost more than 60% of their games when No. 30 is in street clothes.
Even when Curry has been brilliant, that hasn’t always been enough. In the 14 games last season in which he scored at least 30 points, the Warriors still went only 6-8. He needs help, and now that Kristaps Porzingis has been ruled out indefinitely with an undisclosed illness, that help has to come from elsewhere.
Yaxel Lendeborg will be asked to make an immediate impact on both ends. Brandin Podziemski needs to grow into a secondary ball-handler and creator.
Gui Santos has to help cover the wing minutes and carry over the momentum that earned him an extension. More than ever, this team is going to need depth.
Golden State is no longer being talked about like a title threat, and the odds are clearly stacked against this roster. But if the Warriors are going to pull off anything close to the magic they found four years ago, the first step is unavoidable: start well, or risk spending the rest of the season trying to catch up.
In Other News...
Warriors Just Sent A Clear Message About Lajae Jones
Lajae Jones is already getting his pro career underway overseas, and the Warriors' decision to leave the 54th overall pick out of training camp says plenty about where he fits in their immediate plans. After four years of college basketball, Jones signed with Italian club Pallacanestro Trieste and wasted little time getting on the floor, giving him a head start on the next stage of his career while Golden State keeps its focus elsewhere.
Golden State's developmental priorities were clearer when the club opted to bring Alex Toohey into the pipeline instead, with Toohey expected to land with the Santa Cruz roster. For Jones, the path now runs through Italy, and for the Warriors it is another sign that not every recent second-rounder is being treated the same as the team sorts out who is closest to helping in the system. [Read more 🡒]
Warriors Took A Real Risk On Al Horford For One Reason
The Warriors went into the market for a veteran center and came away with Al Horford on a two-year contract that includes a second-year player option, a move that says plenty about how they view the veteran big man. Horford missed significant time last season because of injuries, but the team is clearly willing to take on some risk here because of what he can still bring, and because the medical side in Golden State appears comfortable with where he is physically entering training camp.
Horfords appeal has always been as much about steadiness and fit as raw production, and that matters even more for a Warriors group trying to balance experience, health, and lineup flexibility. The injury history is part of the conversation, of course, but the early read around the building is that he has arrived in strong shape, which is exactly the kind of update Golden State needed before leaning into what could be a very important season for him and for them. [Read more 🡒]
Warriors Camp Battle Next To Draymond Just Got More Intriguing
Training camp in Hawaii is bringing an early sense of urgency to the Warriors, and one of the more interesting questions on the floor is who will be asked to settle in next to Draymond Green in the frontcourt. The team has been sorting through young options, with Draymond coming away impressed after minicamp and Steve Kerr already viewing Gui Santos as a player worth watching closely after his strong finish last season.
There is a real opening there, and not just in the frontcourt. Golden State also has a starting job to sort out at shooting guard, where Brandin Podziemski and De'Anthony Melton are in the mix. For now, the camp spotlight is on how the Warriors balance those battles while trying to find the right fit around Green before the season gets rolling. [Read more 🡒]