Steve Kerr’s push toward more five-out offense could shuffle the Golden State Warriors’ rotation in a hurry.
Kerr said Tuesday that the Warriors will lean more heavily into five-out sets this season, and while that doesn’t mean every player on the floor has to be a perimeter gunner, the idea is pretty clear: more shooting, more space, more pressure on defenses. Golden State led the league in three-point attempts per game last season, but still finished 19th in offensive rating. The next step is obvious enough - cleaner looks from deep, wider driving lanes and fewer turnovers.
There’s already a model for what that kind of offense can look like at its best. The Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics finished first and second in offensive rating last season, per Cleaning the Glass, and Boston is the cleaner comparison here since the Warriors don’t have anyone who can really mimic Nikola Jokic.
The Celtics were without Jayson Tatum for most of the year and still produced elite offense because the system kept humming. Thirteen of their top 14 players in minutes were capable three-point shooters, and that kind of floor spacing made everything easier.
Their second-most used lineup without Jaylen Brown posted a 130 offensive rating, while a unit with Luka Garza, Baylor Scheierman and Hugo Gonzalez alongside Payton Pritchard and Derrick White somehow ripped off a 150 offensive rating.
That blueprint should matter for Golden State, and it already points to a few players whose minutes could rise or fall depending on how serious the team is about spreading the floor.
The five-out look does not automatically eliminate non-shooting bigs. Neemias Queta worked in Boston by setting screens and rolling hard to the rim, and the Warriors can imagine similar usage for Charles Bassey, Graham Ike and even guard-turned-occasional-center Gary Payton II. But the fit gets tighter fast when the lineup includes multiple players defenses don’t have to guard on the arc.
That’s why Brandon Williams stands out as a possible squeeze point. A point guard who doesn’t force defenders to respect him from three can create real problems in a five-out setup, and Williams’ career three-point percentage is 28.0.
Payton could feel the ripple effect too. A five-out offense is a lot harder to run if two non-shooting threats are sharing the floor, which means Payton probably won’t be a natural fit alongside Bassey or Ike. The same issue would show up if he’s paired with Williams or Draymond Green, even if Green has the green light to let it fly more often.
The Warriors’ signing of Georges Niang makes a lot more sense in that context. The 33-year-old forward owns a career 39.9 three-point percentage, and it’s fair to wonder whether some of the minutes that might have gone to Payton will now go to Niang instead.
LJ Cryer is another name to watch. Williams is expected to open as the backup point guard, but if his game doesn’t mesh with the new system, Cryer could push for that spot. Williams’ contract isn’t guaranteed until opening night, so while he doesn’t appear to be in immediate danger of being cut before the season begins, his grip on a roster place would get a lot shakier if Cryer clearly outplays him in camp.
Yaxel Lendeborg also figures to have a meaningful role no matter what, but his workload should climb even higher when Kristaps Porzingis is out. If Golden State wants more shooting from the 3, 4 or 5 spots, Lendeborg is the kind of player who should get the call. In a five-out offense, that combination of spacing and versatility is exactly the point.
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