The Warriors’ 2026-27 rotation picture starts with a simple question: how fast do they trust rookie Yaxel Lendeborg?
Golden State has a few moving parts to sort through, but the early read is pretty clear. Steve Kerr is expected to play Lendeborg right away, just not as a starter. The No. 11 pick looks more like a power forward than a small forward, which points to a role that overlaps with Draymond Green rather than replacing him.
That’s why the initial starting five projects as Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Green and Kristaps Porzingis. Kerr could eventually shift Green to the bench later in the season, but history says he’ll open with him in the first unit. Green has come off the bench only seven times in the last 12 regular seasons.
The fit on paper is straightforward enough: Porzingis’ offense can cover for some of Green’s weaknesses, and Green’s defense can do the same for Porzingis. That pairing is expected to play every minute together, and it also helps explain why Lendeborg and Al Horford would be tied together in their own shared minutes.
There’s at least some evidence the Warriors can make this work. That starting group played only 23 possessions last season because of injuries, but it produced a plus-63.5 net rating, according to Cleaning the Glass.
The more interesting wrinkle comes when Curry sits. In that setup, Brandon Williams is projected to handle the scoring and playmaking load, with De’Anthony Melton and Will Richard helping keep the floor spaced. That version of the lineup would look like Williams, Melton, Richard, Lendeborg and Horford.
Richard’s shooting matters here because Williams hit just 23.2 percent of his threes last season. The Warriors need enough perimeter gravity around him to keep the offense from clogging up, and Richard is the piece that helps make that possible.
There’s also a second Curry lineup that swaps in either Richard or Gary Payton II depending on how those first-quarter minutes go. Last season, Curry, Melton and Richard lineups were actually even better than Curry, Melton and Payton groups, posting a plus-30.8 net rating, though the sample was smaller.
One reason these combinations make sense is the turnover pressure they can create. Lineups featuring two of Melton, Payton and Richard tend to force mistakes, and that can let Lendeborg get out in transition, where he thrives. The same general idea applies to the Curry, Melton, Payton group, which posted a plus-6.3 net rating last season.
For now, though, the rookie’s lane is narrow. He’s projected to play only power forward early on, which keeps him away from the toughest perimeter assignments.
That’s a good thing, because perimeter defense is the area where he could run into trouble. In these projected groups, he won’t be asked to do much of that anyway, since all three feature three guards.
The projected minute split reflects that approach. Curry is at 34, Green, Podziemski, Porzingis and Santos are all at 26, Lendeborg, Melton and Horford at 22, Williams and Richard at 14, and Payton at 8.
Santos’ role matters most while Jimmy Butler is out. In this projection, he gets 26 minutes at small forward, with the remaining minutes there divided between Richard and Payton. Another option would be to slide Lendeborg into some of those small forward minutes while Santos rests, which would push his total higher.
That kind of expansion feels inevitable once the 2026 national champion gets comfortable. Still, the early-season guess is conservative: 22 minutes a night, all of them at power forward, with the Warriors easing him in rather than throwing him into every possible lineup spot.
Charles Bassey and Georges Niang are left out of this projection, though both are expected to get chances once injuries and rest days start to open up the rotation.
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For the Warriors, the intrigue had looked a bit different. Golden State had shown interest in Simmons and could have tried to use him as a backup point guard or a versatile forward, the kind of Swiss Army piece that sometimes finds a lane in their system. Even then, he would have had to win a preseason roster spot over Brandon Williams, so the path was never going to be automatic, and the latest Sacramento move suggests the Warriors may have sidestepped a role puzzle before it reached their own locker room. [Read more 🡒]