The Golden State Warriors pulled out a gritty 119-116 win over the Phoenix Suns on Saturday night, and while it might not look like much on paper - a narrow home victory in December to move to 14-15 - inside that locker room, it meant a whole lot more. This wasn't just about beating a Western Conference rival. This was about stopping the bleeding.
The Warriors had dropped 10 of their last 14 heading into this one. They’d been searching for answers, searching for rhythm, and, frankly, searching for hope.
Even with Stephen Curry back in the lineup after a two-week absence, the team had been in a tailspin. That’s how you end up leaning on guys like Pat Spencer - a great story, but not exactly the blueprint for a championship push.
Let’s call it what it is: Golden State hasn’t been a good basketball team this season. And while there are several reasons for that, one stat in particular jumps off the page - and it might just be the most telling indicator of their struggles.
The Shot Opportunity Gap
Last season, the Warriors were among the league’s best at generating more shot opportunities than their opponents, finishing fourth with a +3.8 shot-opportunity differential. This year?
That number has flipped to -1.1, ranking 20th in the NBA. That’s a swing of nearly five shot attempts per game - and it’s killing them.
To understand why that matters, let’s break it down. Shot opportunities aren’t the same as possessions.
You can have a possession and never get a shot off - say, if you turn the ball over. Or you can give up an offensive rebound, which keeps your opponent’s possession alive and gives them another look at the basket.
In the end, it’s not just about how many times you touch the ball - it’s about how many times you actually get a chance to score.
And right now, the Warriors are losing that battle. They’re turning the ball over on 16.2% of their possessions - up from 14.2% a year ago.
That’s one of the biggest jumps in the league. At the same time, they’re allowing 12.1 offensive rebounds per game, fourth-most in the NBA.
That’s a brutal combination: giving the ball away more often and failing to secure it on the other end.
Put those together, and you start to see the picture. The Warriors are giving opponents more chances to score, and with their offense ranked just 21st in the league, they don’t have the firepower to make up for it anymore.
A Far Cry from the Dynasty Days
This is the key difference between the Warriors now and the Warriors of old. During their dynasty run, they could survive - even thrive - despite sloppy turnovers and poor rebounding.
They were that explosive. They’d cough up the ball, give up second-chance points, and still bury you under a barrage of threes and backdoor cuts.
But this version of the team doesn’t have that margin for error. The offense isn’t bailing them out anymore.
The turnovers that used to be shrugged off are now game-changers. The missed box-outs are turning into losses.
And suddenly, every possession matters in a way it didn’t before.
Steve Kerr has been vocal about the turnover issue all season, and it’s easy to see why. This offense - built on constant motion, sharp timing, and high-risk passing - has always walked a tightrope.
When it works, it’s beautiful. When it doesn’t, it’s a turnover waiting to happen.
And lately, it hasn’t been working nearly enough.
That’s why Kerr recently acknowledged the need to shift gears when Curry isn’t on the floor. He’s talked about putting the ball in Jimmy Butler’s hands more often - not to recreate the Warriors’ signature style, but to slow things down and play a more traditional, ball-control offense. Less of the Princeton-inspired chaos, more pick-and-roll, more structure, more certainty.
It’s a smart adjustment. Because even if it’s not as flashy, it gives them a better shot - literally.
Fewer turnovers mean more trips to the rim. More shots mean more chances to win.
And right now, the Warriors need every edge they can get.
The Bottom Line
This team isn’t dead in the water. There’s still talent.
There’s still experience. And when Curry is cooking, they can still hang with anyone.
But the margin for error is razor-thin. They’re not blowing teams out anymore.
They’re fighting for every possession, every rebound, every look at the basket.
So yes, a three-point win over the Suns in December might not be something to throw a parade over. But for a team that’s been searching for something to build on, it matters.
Because if the Warriors are going to climb back into the contender conversation, it won’t be because of one big win. It’ll be because they started stacking small ones - and fixing the little things that used to be afterthoughts.
Right now, that starts with getting more shots than the other guys. Until they do, they’re going to be stuck in the middle of the pack. And for a franchise used to living at the top, that’s a tough place to be.