Golden State Warriors fans spent much of the offseason hoping for a splash, but the signs keep pointing in a much quieter direction.
The dream scenarios were easy to build. A trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo always looked like a long shot, but it was still out there.
Then LeBron James announced he wouldn’t be returning to the Los Angeles Lakers, and some fans started imagining him in the Bay Area. He still could, but that now feels more like wishful thinking than a real expectation.
If that’s the case, the Warriors may be headed toward a much less glamorous menu: Kristaps Porzingis, De’Anthony Melton, Al Horford, and Charles Bassey. And if that’s the group, another Play-In appearance starts to look like the likeliest outcome.
That reality is frustrating, but it also lines up with what Mike Dunleavy Jr. said months ago. Back in May, the Warriors general manager looked at last season and said, “I don’t think we came up short because of the talent on the roster,”
A lot of fans treated that like a smokescreen at the time. Maybe he was playing it coy.
Maybe he was trying to hide the team’s real plans. But the offseason has made one thing clear: Dunleavy meant it.
Golden State appears comfortable leaning into the same basic roster approach, and that’s exactly what has happened.
From the front office’s point of view, it’s not really about what fans or analysts think. It’s about what Dunleavy, Steve Kerr, and Joe Lacob believe.
And right now, they seem to think the Warriors can hang around .500 until Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody return from injury, then make a push from there. If that goes right, maybe they climb into the top six in the Western Conference.
If not, the Play-In is waiting.
That’s the bet. It’s also a risky one.
The Warriors are older than they were during that stretch, and the injury issues that derailed them last season haven’t magically disappeared. They haven’t really gotten younger, either, aside from drafting Yaxel Lendeborg and Lejae Jones. So the idea that this same group can simply rerun the 2024-25 model and get a better result feels, at best, optimistic.
Maybe it works. Maybe the injury luck turns, the roster holds together, and Golden State ends up as the No. 5 seed in the West or better.
If that happens, everyone can admit they were wrong. But until then, the Warriors look like a team betting on repetition with a roster that already showed how fragile that formula can be.
Dunleavy warned everyone. Fans just didn’t want to believe he meant it.
In Other News...
Warriors Suddenly Have A New Jimmy Butler Dilemma
Yaxel Lendeborg has given the Warriors something to think about this summer, and not just because of his strong play in Las Vegas. The rookie has flashed the kind of size, versatility and ball skills that have already prompted some observers to wonder whether he can grow into a role that looks a lot like Jimmy Butlers, which is not the sort of comparison a team usually hears when it is still sorting out its roster for next season.
That is where the conversation gets interesting for Golden State. If Lendeborg keeps showing he can handle that kind of responsibility, he could become more than just a nice summer-league story and turn into a piece that changes how the front office views Butlers place on the roster. For now, it is all speculative, but the Warriors have at least created a new layer to a bigger decision they may have to make sooner rather than later. [Read more 🡒]
Warriors Just Watched Another Free Agent Slip Away During LeBron Wait
The Warriors have spent the opening stretch of free agency mostly taking care of their own business, re-signing familiar faces while the rest of the market keeps moving. One more guard came off the board when Gary Trent Jr. agreed to stay put, another reminder that the pool of available options is thinning even as Golden State has yet to add an outside free agent.
For a team still sorting through its backcourt depth, the timing matters. De'Anthony Melton is back in the mix, LJ Cryer got a look during summer league, and the front office has had to balance patience with urgency while the market narrows around them. Even with the possibility of using the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception, the Warriors are still waiting to see how the rest of the board shakes out. [Read more 🡒]
Stephen Curry May Face A Title Decision Warriors Fans Know Well
Stephen Currys next contract conversation is starting to feel familiar in Golden State, where every big-money decision eventually circles back to the same question: how much is one more championship worth? Curry is eligible for a two-year extension worth nearly $140 million, and the Warriors know that kind of deal comes with the usual tradeoff. Paying their franchise icon at the top of the market would be the easy path, but it would also leave less room to build the kind of deeper roster that has been missing around him in recent seasons.
Curry has already lived through this kind of calculation before, and the Warriors have benefited when the math tilted toward flexibility. The difference now is that the stakes are tied not just to roster construction, but to legacy, with every dollar potentially shaping how competitive Golden State can be in the years ahead. If Curry decides to keep that door open, it could give the front office a chance to chase more help around him. If he does not, the Warriors will have to find another way to make the numbers work. [Read more 🡒]