The Golden State Warriors aren’t being talked about like a true Western Conference heavyweight heading into next season, but they still have a clear path to the Play-In mix.
Last year, Golden State scraped into the Play-In as the No. 10 seed, then beat the No. 9 seed Los Angeles Clippers behind a vintage showing from their veterans before falling to the Phoenix Suns in the next game. That run set the tone for where the Warriors sit now: not among the West’s elite, but still very much in the conversation for the postseason race.
On paper, the Warriors look like a team that should land somewhere around .500. If health cooperates, a push toward 50 wins wouldn’t be out of the question.
But with so many older players on the roster, injuries have to be part of the projection. Even so, they should move ahead of at least one team in the standings.
One place that seems likely to happen is with the Clippers. After the offseason drama around Kawhi Leonard and the shady dealings tied to him, it’s fair to expect Golden State to be positioned ahead of them. Leonard is now back with the Toronto Raptors, leaving one less star in the West and opening the door for the Warriors to climb.
That would put Golden State in the No. 9 spot to start. From there, the Portland Trail Blazers are the next team in the way.
Portland finished 42-40, the same record as the Clippers, and for whatever reason they’ve given the Warriors trouble lately. With Damian Lillard likely returning from injury and Ja Morant now in the fold, that gap could grow even wider.
There are obvious caveats. Lillard is 36, so time on the shelf is always a possibility, and Morant has a reputation for being a loose cannon. But if both stay on the floor and perform to their level, Portland has every chance to improve on last season.
The Phoenix Suns are another team to watch in this range. They came into the Play-In as the No. 7 seed at 45-37, which was the mirror image of Golden State’s record. Phoenix ended the Warriors’ season, but if Golden State stays healthy, that matchup should be far more competitive.
That’s why the most realistic target for the Warriors might be the No. 8 seed and about 45 wins. Hitting that mark would give them a little breathing room in the Play-In, since they could drop one game and still have a shot to get into the playoffs by beating the winner of the No. 9 versus No. 10 matchup.
The title years are probably behind them, but as long as Stephen Curry and Steve Kerr are around, the Warriors aren’t going to stop competing. They may not be a championship team anymore, but they’re still going to make things difficult.
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Obi Agbims arrival also underscores how little room the Warriors have left to maneuver. Golden State is already at its offseason roster limit, so any formal addition still has to be paired with another transaction before everything is finalized, adding another layer to a camp battle that already figures to be crowded and closely watched. [Read more 🡒]