Warriors’ 2021 Draft Gamble on Kuminga Continues to Haunt as Peers Break Out
Back in 2021, the Golden State Warriors were sitting at a pivotal crossroads. Armed with the No. 7 pick-courtesy of the D’Angelo Russell trade-they had a rare opportunity: add a high-upside young talent to a veteran core that still had championship aspirations. The pick needed to be a bridge between eras, a player who could contribute in the present and carry the torch in the future.
They went with Jonathan Kuminga.
At the time, it was an upside swing-betting on elite athleticism, raw scoring ability, and the potential to mold a two-way force. But as we approach the midway point of the 2025-26 season, the Warriors are still waiting for that potential to fully materialize.
And with every passing game, the players they passed on are not just developing-they're thriving. Meanwhile, Kuminga remains a puzzle the Warriors haven’t figured out how to solve.
The Kuminga Conundrum
Kuminga’s talent has never been in question. His physical tools are off the charts, and when he’s locked in, he can look like a future All-Star.
The problem? That version of Kuminga comes and goes.
For every stretch where he seems to be turning the corner-cutting better, defending with purpose, making the extra pass-there are longer stretches where he struggles to stay engaged in the system.
Golden State’s offense has always required high-level feel and decision-making. It’s a read-and-react ecosystem built on movement, timing, and trust.
Kuminga, at least so far, hasn’t consistently shown the instincts or discipline to thrive in that environment. His defense is erratic, his passing remains limited, and his impact fluctuates wildly from night to night.
He’s had moments, but the full package just hasn’t come together.
And it’s not just on Kuminga. Development is a shared responsibility between player, coaching staff, and front office. But regardless of where the blame falls, the outcome is the same: the Warriors haven’t gotten what they needed from the No. 7 pick.
The Draft Board That Haunts
What makes the situation sting even more is what came after. The very next pick in the 2021 Draft?
Franz Wagner to Orlando. Since then, Wagner has emerged as one of the most consistent young forwards in the league.
He’s averaging 19.3 points per game, has logged over 4,000 more minutes than Kuminga, and has been knocking on the All-Star door for a couple of seasons now. He’s a high-IQ, two-way wing who would’ve fit like a glove in Golden State’s system.
And it doesn’t stop there.
Alperen Sengun, taken 16th by Houston, has already made an All-Star team. He’s become the offensive hub for a resurgent Rockets squad, averaging 22.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 7.3 assists this season.
Sengun’s blend of scoring, vision, and creativity from the post is rare, and he’s improved defensively too. In a system like Golden State’s, his passing and feel would’ve been a dream fit.
Then there’s Jalen Johnson, drafted 20th by the Hawks. He’s taken a massive leap this season and is almost a lock for his first All-Star nod.
Johnson is averaging 23.2 points, 10 boards, and 7.3 assists while anchoring Atlanta on both ends. He’s developed into a two-way force and is arguably the best player on his team-all on a team-friendly deal.
It’s not just about the stars either. Even players like Trey Murphy III, who went later in the first round, have carved out valuable roles. Murphy has become a reliable starter for the Pelicans, offering shooting, defense, and smart team play-exactly the kind of complementary skill set the Warriors could use.
Could the Warriors Have Seen This Coming?
Some might argue that Sengun and Johnson weren’t realistic options at No. 7-that they were mid-to-late first-rounders for a reason. But that doesn’t quite hold up.
Sengun was highly rated by several analytical models and even cracked the Top 5 on some public draft boards. Johnson’s slide had more to do with how things ended at Duke than his talent-he was widely viewed as a Top-10 prospect.
Even if the Warriors had gone with Moses Moody at No. 7 (who they ended up taking at No. 14), and used their second lottery pick on Sengun or Johnson, they’d be in a dramatically different spot. Instead, they doubled down on upside with Kuminga-and so far, it hasn’t paid off.
The Regret Is Real
Hindsight is always 20/20 in the draft world, but this isn’t just about missing on a star. It’s about missing on multiple players who would’ve fit better, contributed more, and potentially extended the Warriors’ championship window.
Imagine a Warriors lineup with Franz Wagner on the wing and Alperen Sengun orchestrating from the post. That’s not just a better fit-it’s a core to build around once Steph, Klay, and Draymond finally step aside.
Instead, they’re left wondering what could’ve been. Kuminga still has time to turn things around-he’s only 21, after all-but the clock is ticking, and the margin for error in Golden State is shrinking.
The Warriors didn’t just miss on a pick. They missed on a chance to reshape their future.
And now, as those missed opportunities blossom into stars elsewhere, the regret only grows louder.