The Warriors are heading into Friday night without Steph Curry, and that changes everything. San Antonio is rolling, riding a league-best 10-game winning streak after an 0-2 start, and Victor Wembanyama has been playing like the force nobody wants to see coming off a hot streak. Golden State still has a path to an upset, but it’s a narrow one.
Last season, Curry was the difference in San Antonio. He powered the Warriors to back-to-back wins there and piled up 95 points across those two games.
This time, the burden shifts to a very different cast: rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, Brandin Podziemski, and the Warriors’ often praised but now depleted depth. Steve Kerr was asked how he planned to handle the Spurs’ size and athleticism and answered with a line that fit the moment: "You got any ideas for Wemby?"
The first requirement is simple in theory and brutal in practice: Golden State has to win the three-point battle. That means stretching Wembanyama away from the basket and making him defend actions all over the floor.
Pick-and-pops with Al Horford, short rolls from Draymond Green, and Lendeborg ghost screens are all part of the plan. Straight-line drives at a set Wembanyama won’t work.
There are reasons for the Warriors to believe they can live in that space. They’ve shown they can still shoot it without Curry, knocking down 17 threes in Houston, 17 in Phoenix with most of the starters resting, and 22 in their win over the Clippers without Curry and Green. But the offense has to stay organized, and Green has to be part of the spacing equation too - he’s taken just 11 threes on the season.
San Antonio also gives up looks from deep. The Spurs rank 26th in opponent three-point percentage at 37.9% and 28th in contested threes.
Above the break has been especially vulnerable, with opponents shooting 39.9% from there. Golden State is at 39.3% as a team, while Lendeborg is at 41.8% and De’Anthony Melton is at 47.7%.
The numbers from last season point to the same formula. In Golden State’s two wins in San Antonio, the Warriors launched 57 threes in one game and 45 in the other.
The target Friday is clear: hold the Spurs under 35% from three and make at least 17 threes. Fourteen of San Antonio’s 20 losses last season came when it shot below 35% from deep, and both of its losses this season followed that pattern.
When opponents made at least 17 threes last season, the Spurs went 6-9; when opponents made 16 or fewer, they were 56-11.
The second key is keeping Wembanyama away from the rim. He has taken 43.6% of his shots there this season and finished them at a 79.2% clip.
From midrange, he’s at 30%, and he’s shooting 31.9% on above-the-break threes. The Warriors don’t have many answers for him near the basket, but there is a defensive wrinkle that other teams have used: put a center on Stephon Castle and a wing on Wembanyama.
That keeps the slower big out of the Fox-Wemby pick-and-rolls and lets him stay home as a helper in the paint.
That approach comes with a tradeoff. Teams are willing to live with Castle’s jumper.
He’s shooting 31.5% from three and just 36.5% on wide-open threes, with 5.3 wide-open attempts per game, second-most in the NBA behind only Cameron Boozer. The danger is obvious, though: Wembanyama can simply bury a smaller defender deep in the post or seal him under the rim.
If Golden State goes that route, Green or Lendeborg would likely have to be the body on him, and the goal would be to make him catch the ball well outside his comfort zone and settle for jumpers.
The final piece is surviving the minutes when Wembanyama sits. San Antonio’s splits with and without him have been massive.
Through 360 minutes with Wembanyama on the floor, the Spurs have a +30 net rating. When he’s off the court, that number drops to -18.4.
Last season, the gap was still huge, from +17 with him to +0.6 without him.
That’s where Golden State’s depth has to carry real weight, even with Steph and Brandon Williams out. Melton is likely to move into the starting lineup, LJ Cryer should see more run and could play 20 minutes a night, and Gui Santos needs to stabilize after a rough stretch. Cryer scored 13 points and finished plus-18 in 18 minutes against the Rockets, while Santos has managed just six points in 45 minutes since returning from knee tendinitis and had four turnovers in 12 minutes against Houston.
The Warriors’ bench has outscored San Antonio’s by more than 15 points this season, and that matters because Luke Kornet, Wembanyama’s backup, has been on the floor for a Spurs unit that has posted a -15.5 net rating. San Antonio’s starters have outscored opponents by an average of 13 points per game. For Golden State to have a real shot, it needs to win those 15 to 18 non-Wembanyama minutes by at least eight to 10 points.
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So the Warriors may have to look elsewhere for a workable path, and that likely means teams dealing with financial pressure rather than teams chasing the lottery. The Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic stand out as possible partners in that kind of framework, but the broader point is clear: this is no longer just about finding a team willing to trade, it is about finding one with the right mix of need and flexibility. [Read more 🡒]