The Warriors are staring at a familiar kind of decision with Brandin Podziemski, and they ought to remember how the last one went.
Golden State thought it was doing the safe thing after the 2022 championship when it moved quickly to extend Jordan Poole. The logic was straightforward: keep the scoring guard happy, reward him before he hit restricted free agency, and settle the matter early.
Instead, the four-year deal that reached as high as $140 million became a costly misfire once Poole’s production fell off in the 2022-23 season. The debate over whether that slide was inevitable or tied to Draymond Green’s punch still lingers, but the outcome was the same - the Warriors realized they had overpaid.
That led to the salary dump to Chris Paul, and then Paul walked in free agency the next summer.
That is the warning sign hanging over Podziemski now. He is extension-eligible for the next month-and-a-half, and Golden State has to decide whether to move now or wait.
If the Warriors can get him on a team-friendly number, extending him now makes sense. In this case, team-friendly would mean an average annual value in the $16 million to $17 million range. Anything above that starts to look like a gamble the team doesn’t need to take.
The biggest reason is flexibility. Locking in that kind of money now would cut into the cap space Golden State could have next offseason. The Warriors would be better off keeping both Stephen Curry and Podziemski off extension terms this offseason if it gives them more room to maneuver in next year’s free-agent market.
There’s also the possibility that Podziemski’s value dips, the same way Poole’s did. If that happens, Golden State would have more leverage later than it does right now.
And even if Podziemski breaks out, the Warriors may not end up trapped the way they were with Poole. Restricted free agents have a harder time cashing in these days. A rival team would need to clear room for a massive offer sheet, and that kind of market may never materialize.
That’s why the performance risk isn’t as scary here as it was with Poole. Poole’s value was almost entirely tied to his scoring because his defense was a liability. When his offense got inefficient, he became hard to play.
Podziemski gives a team more than that. He affects both ends of the floor, and his positive net rating across his first three seasons backs that up, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Golden State has also been a better defensive team with him on the court every season of his career. All signs point to him staying a positive defender.
The real swing factor is offense. Podziemski averaged 18.1 points per game over the final two months of the 2025-26 season, but expecting that level for an entire year is a stretch, especially with Curry healthy and taking some of those touches back. Where Podziemski lands scoring-wise will shape the talks.
He might end up in Christian Braun territory, but the Warriors should still aim lower if they can. The goal is to keep him on a smaller AAV and preserve as much future flexibility as possible.
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