The Oklahoma City Thunder’s offseason money crunch already has the franchise making tough choices, and Chet Holmgren’s next step could decide whether that pressure turns into something bigger. If Holmgren doesn’t answer after a rough playoff finish, the Golden State Warriors need to be ready.
Holmgren was badly beaten down the stretch of this year’s playoffs, and the source of that damage was Victor Wembanyama in the Western Conference Finals. That kind of ending puts a lot on the former No. 2 overall pick entering next season. If he stumbles again, the Thunder could be pushed toward a decision that has already been floated around the league - one the Warriors have the flexibility to chase.
Oklahoma City’s payroll is already tight. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Holmgren are all on max contracts, and the Thunder just handed Isaiah Hartenstein a three-year, $75 million extension.
Cason Wallace is also extension eligible, and he’ll likely be looking for more than $20 million per year. Even after moving on from Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, the financial squeeze is still real.
That’s why Zach Harper of The Athletic raised the possibility that Holmgren could eventually become the odd man out if the playoff struggles continue.
“The second apron is rearing its ugly head with OKC in real time and will continue to do so as long as the Thunder keep that big three together. They might have to make a big-time decision soon. If Holmgren continues to struggle against Victor Wembanyama when it matters most, then maybe that decision becomes easier," Harper wrote.
Golden State has positioned itself to pounce if that kind of opening appears. The Warriors have made next offseason’s cap space a priority, but they also have a way to use that flexibility sooner by sending out expiring contracts and draft assets before February’s trade deadline.
If Holmgren’s situation worsens, or if the Thunder decide Wallace is the better long-term financial bet, the Warriors could get involved with a package built around Jimmy Butler and picks. Another route could include Draymond Green, picks and Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody.
Oklahoma City wouldn’t be giving Holmgren away. He’s too talented for that, and he’s just beginning a five-year, $239.2 million contract. But the Jaylen Brown trade is a reminder that a player of that caliber may not cost quite as much in assets as expected.
For the Warriors, the appeal is obvious. Holmgren is young, and there’s still plenty of room for his game to grow if he ever ends up in a larger role outside Oklahoma City. That’s exactly the kind of player Golden State should be watching closely: a move that could help right away while still keeping one eye on what comes next.
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