The Minnesota Timberwolves are betting big on Jonathan Kuminga, and the pitch to the former Golden State Warriors forward is clear: come in, start right away, and help a team chasing championship contention.
That opportunity comes with a catch. For this move to really work, Kuminga has to become something the Warriors never got consistently - a dependable 3-point shooter and catch-and-shoot threat.
That was part of the story in Golden State for nearly five years. Kuminga’s role bounced around because the shot never settled in.
Now Minnesota is asking for more, and the timing matters. He’s 23, and the Timberwolves are giving him a starting spot, but that only holds if he can stretch the floor.
The fit is complicated by who’s already in the lineup. Kuminga is set to play alongside Rudy Gobert at the five, which should help him on defense.
He may be able to play more aggressively and chase opponents around the perimeter. But on offense, the spacing problem is obvious.
Gobert is essentially a non-factor from beyond the restricted circle, so Minnesota can’t afford to stack the floor with another player defenses ignore from deep. Chris Finch and the Timberwolves are not going to want two guys on the floor who opponents don’t respect from 3-point range. If that becomes the reality, Kuminga could find himself sitting in big moments and late-game situations.
His career numbers don’t exactly scream certainty. Kuminga has shot 33.2% from 3-point range overall, and he’s been under 34% in four of his five seasons. The lone exception came in his second year, when he hit 37%.
He did flash early last season, opening with a 4-of-6 night from deep against the Los Angeles Lakers. But the touch didn’t hold. By the time he was traded to the Atlanta Hawks in February, he had settled at 32.1% from 3.
Minnesota also loses a helpful piece of its own spacing puzzle. The Timberwolves no longer have the option of swapping Gobert for Naz Reid, a combination that would have fit Kuminga better offensively, even if it would have cost them on defense.
The broader team context only adds more pressure. Minnesota finished sixth in 3-point percentage last season and will want to stay near that level. That task gets tougher without injured former Warrior Donte DiVincenzo, who hit 37.9% from deep on nearly eight attempts per game and was their highest-volume shooter after Anthony Edwards.
In the end, Kuminga’s minutes will come down to one thing: whether the shot is good enough. Ayo Dosunmu, who shot 41.4% from 3 with the Timberwolves last season, and Terrence Shannon Jr., who shot 40.8%, are projected bench players, but either could end up playing more than Kuminga if his 3-ball doesn’t at least get to league average, around 35-36%.
The history says that’s a tall ask. But if Kuminga is going to make this Timberwolves run work - and boost his value before another possible trip to free agency next year - he’s going to have to beat it.
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