At his peak, Jimmy Butler is the kind of player who can bend a defense to his will - especially when he’s operating in the paint. He’s a master at navigating tight spaces, drawing contact, and finishing through it. That combination of craft, strength, and savvy has made him one of the most effective scorers in the league when he’s near the rim.
“Whatever the right play is to make, that’s the play he makes,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said this week. “So I don’t ever worry about Jimmy.”
But lately, there’s been reason to at least raise an eyebrow.
The Warriors have hovered around .500 all season, and while Butler is averaging 19.1 points per game - a modest bump from last year’s 17.5 - the scoring efficiency that’s long defined his game hasn’t quite been there. The raw numbers only scratch the surface.
Butler, now 36, has been managing a laundry list of nagging issues: back, glute, and knee injuries. And while he’s never been a volume three-point shooter, his bread-and-butter has always been that in-between game - short midrange shots and strong drives to the cup.
Last season, after arriving via trade from Miami in early February, Butler was on a tear. He converted 65% of his shots within five feet of the rim - a mark that speaks to just how dominant he can be when healthy and locked in.
Early this season, he was still producing at an elite level near the basket, hitting 62.6% of those close-range looks. But over his last 10 games, that number has dipped to 56.9%. That’s not catastrophic, but it’s a noticeable slide for a player who relies so heavily on that area of the floor.
His midrange game has also cooled. Butler knocked down 44% of his shots from 8 to 16 feet last season.
Over the last 10 games? Just 4-of-16.
That’s a small sample size, but when you factor in the physical toll of core and knee issues - especially at age 36 - it starts to make sense. Elevating for jumpers and absorbing contact in the lane isn’t as easy when your body won’t fully cooperate.
Still, here’s the thing: Butler hasn’t stopped attacking. According to NBA tracking data, he’s averaging 12.0 drives per game this season - nearly identical to the 12.8 he averaged last year and the 12.9 over his last 10 games.
The intent is still there. The mindset hasn’t changed.
He’s also getting to the line at the same clip - 7.8 free throws per game, right in line with last year’s 7.7. And his shot volume is steady, too: 11.5 attempts per game compared to 11.4 last season.
So while the efficiency has dipped, the aggression hasn’t. That’s a key distinction.
So what can the Warriors do to help Butler turn those drives into more consistent points?
Interestingly, a fan’s email to team owner Joe Lacob may have touched on something real. The team has acknowledged that Butler - who’s been seeing more minutes at power forward than his traditional small forward role - might not be getting the ball in the right spots.
Moses Moody, who starts alongside Butler, said it’s on the team to get him the rock where he can go to work.
“I think it’s just about getting him the ball,” Moody said. “Get him the ball in ideal offensive situations and he can handle the rest.”
Draymond Green echoed that sentiment but added that Butler has to meet the team halfway.
“As I do a better job of that, we need Jimmy to be more aggressive and demonstrative and take the ball, and say where he wants the ball,” Green said after Sunday’s loss in Portland. “And he will.”
That kind of leadership - both from Butler and his teammates - will be crucial if the Warriors want to climb out of the middle of the pack. Because when Butler is right, he’s still a matchup nightmare. The challenge now is getting him back to that level consistently.
Meanwhile, the Warriors will be without Al Horford and Pat Spencer for Thursday’s game in Phoenix. Spencer is out due to a personal absence - his younger brother, Cam Spencer of the Grizzlies, also missed his team’s game this week for similar reasons.
As for Horford, he’s been sidelined for nearly a month with sciatica and doesn’t appear close to returning. He told reporters in Phoenix that he’ll need at least another week or two to ramp up before he’s physically ready to return to the floor.
In the short term, that leaves the Warriors relying even more heavily on Butler - and hoping the version of him that finishes through contact and takes over late-game possessions is just around the corner.