Texas is still sitting at the top in most college football rankings, but ESPN’s College Football Power Index just threw a wrench into the conversation.
The model has Georgia at No. 1 in its latest update, pushing Texas down to No. 4.
Ohio State checks in at No. 2, Notre Dame sits third, and Miami completes the top five.
That shift comes with Texas idle this week, while Georgia made the biggest statement in the model’s eyes with a 41-13 win over Oklahoma. Texas’ tighter road win at Tennessee and Ohio State’s blowout of Illinois kept both teams in the mix, but not enough to stay ahead of the Bulldogs in the computer’s view.
The Longhorns also finished behind Ohio State even though Texas beat the Buckeyes head-to-head.
FPI is built to project what teams will do going forward, not just reward what they’ve already done. It uses expected points added on offense, defense and special teams, then adjusts for opponent quality before running 20,000 simulations of the rest of the schedule to forecast wins, playoff chances and title odds.
That’s why Georgia has climbed to the top. Through four games, the Bulldogs have looked like the most complete team in the country, pairing an efficient offense with a defense that has been stifling against the competition.
Notre Dame has also stayed well ahead in the model. The Irish are second nationally behind Georgia and carry a 34 point per game winning margin on average, which has helped separate them from Texas and Ohio State.
Human polls still have Texas at No. 1, and that reflects the Longhorns’ résumé and signature wins. But the ESPN model is putting more weight on efficiency, future projection and overall profile, and right now it likes Georgia best.
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