The line for Georgia’s matchup with Florida keeps moving in the Bulldogs’ direction.
Just 48 hours before the rivals meet in Atlanta, both FanDuel and DraftKings have Georgia installed as a 12.5-point favorite. On Sunday, FanDuel had the Bulldogs at 9.5 points, while DraftKings had them at 10.5.
That jump pushes the game squarely into double-digit territory. It also reflects a week that has tilted in Georgia’s favor for a couple of clear reasons.
The first is Florida’s quarterback situation. Athens-area native Aaron Philo opened the season as the Gators’ starter and played in the first six games, but he sat out Florida’s 27-24 win at Texas because of a shoulder injury. Tramell Jones got the start in Austin and helped pull off the upset, though he is dealing with “wear-and-tear” injuries.
Florida coach Jon Sumrall said Monday he wasn’t ready to declare a starter.
“Both guys are available - believe in both guys,” Sumrall told reporters. “Not going to name a starter today. We need both those guys to be ready to play.”
Both quarterbacks were listed as questionable Wednesday night on the SEC’s mandated injury report. Georgia also got a boost there, with running back Chauncey Bowens upgraded to questionable from out. Bowens has missed the last few weeks and scored the game-winning touchdown against Florida last year in Jacksonville.
The second factor is the market itself. Georgia’s home loss to Auburn and Florida’s road win at Texas probably nudged the number around, even though the line had spent much of the summer near 12 points. Florida’s early-season play pushed it below 10, but the number climbed back above double digits after the Gators were blown out in consecutive losses to Missouri and South Carolina.
There’s still a history lesson attached to this number. Since 2010, only twice has a double-digit favorite lost this game - in 1997 and 2014. Both times, the underdog leaned on turnovers and a strong run game to pull off the upset.
Georgia has been favored in 13 of the last 16 meetings since 2010 and is 11-5 straight up against Florida in that stretch. The Bulldogs lost as a one-point favorite in overtime in 2010, as a 10-point favorite in 2014, as a 3-point underdog in 2015, as a 6.5-point underdog in 2016 and as a 3-point favorite in 2020.
Since 2010, Georgia has averaged a 6.5-point edge in the betting line against Florida. And in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, the team that runs the ball better is 15-1 since 2010, with Florida’s 44-28 win in 2020 the lone exception.
In Other News...
Georgia Tech Faces One Big Lineup Question Before Pitt
Georgia Tech heads into its matchup with Pittsburgh carrying a familiar late-week mix of concern and optimism on the availability report. The Yellow Jackets have been sorting through several injury questions, and the latest update brought a new name into the picture with left guard Kevin Peay Jr. joining returner Rahkeem Smith on the report as the team prepares for kickoff.
The bigger issue sits on the offensive line, where Georgia Tech may need another answer at left guard if backup Courtney Heard is unable to go. On the other side of the ball, there is better news in the middle of the defense, with defensive tackles Tawfiq Thomas and Vincent Carroll-Jackson expected back. Their return would give Georgia Tech a welcome boost against the run as it tries to settle in before a key ACC test. [Read more 🡒]
Georgia Tech Fans Should Watch How Florida Tests Georgias Defense
Floridas prep for Georgia is being shaped by a simple formula: keep mistakes to a minimum and make the game physical. SEC Network analyst Cole Cubelic has framed the matchup around how the Bulldogs handle quarterback Gunner Stockton and running back Jadan Baugh, two players who could tilt the script if Florida can get enough pressure on the edges and stay on schedule. For Georgia Tech fans keeping an eye on how their rivals stack up, it is the kind of chess match that usually comes down to whether one side can force the other out of its comfort zone.
One wrinkle worth watching is how Florida chooses to attack Georgia before the Bulldogs settle in defensively. The Gators have not named a starting quarterback for Saturday, and Tramell Jones Jr. already showed how effective the read option can be against Texas. If Florida leans into that look again, the real issue may not be the play design so much as whether Georgia can avoid the turnovers Cubelic could end up deciding the game. [Read more 🡒]
Georgia Tech Suddenly Has A Serious O-Line Problem Before Pitt
Georgia Techs offensive line took a major hit this week, and it comes at a bad time with Pitt ahead. Brent Key said Ethan Mackenny and Kevin Peay Jr. are done for the season because of injuries, thinning a group that had already been dealing with lineup changes. Mackenny was hurt in week two and has not played since, while Peay went down in the recent game against Boston College.
Josh Petty is expected to slide in at left tackle, but the bigger question is what happens at left guard if Courtney Heard cannot go. That leaves the Yellow Jackets sorting out one side of the line on the fly, and it adds real pressure to a unit that has to steady itself quickly before the next test. [Read more 🡒]