The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings dropped Tuesday night, and we’re officially in the home stretch. By Sunday, we’ll know which 12 teams are punching their ticket to the first-ever expanded CFP field. But for now, the picture is starting to take shape - and it’s already giving us potential matchups that feel like bowl season came early.
Ohio State and Indiana hold steady at the top
At No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, Ohio State and Indiana remain in control of their own destiny - and their spots come with a major perk. If the bracket were set today, both would earn first-round byes as the two highest-ranked conference champions. But there’s still one major hurdle: they’ll face each other Saturday in the Big Ten Championship, a game that now doubles as a battle for a top seed and a week off.
Georgia and Texas Tech crash the top four
Georgia climbs into the No. 3 spot, while Texas Tech makes a statement by sliding into No. 4 after Texas A&M’s loss to Texas. That defeat dropped the Aggies to No. 7 and shook up the bracket. The Red Raiders now hold the final first-round bye - a monumental shift for a program that’s been building momentum all season.
If the rankings held, Georgia would face the winner of a first-round clash between Ole Miss and the fourth-highest-ranked Group of Five champion. Texas Tech, on the other side of the bracket, would play the winner of Oregon vs. the fifth-ranked Group of Five champ. These matchups are more than just placeholders - they’re shaping up to be heavyweight showdowns.
First-round fireworks already brewing
Let’s talk about the potential first-round games, because they’re loaded.
Ohio State, as the top seed, would face the winner of an 8 vs. 9 showdown between Oklahoma and Alabama - two bluebloods with something to prove. That game would be hosted in Norman, setting the stage for an all-SEC battle in Big 12 territory.
On the other side, Indiana would take on the winner of Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame - a matchup that pits SEC power against one of college football’s most storied programs.
Meanwhile, Oregon - currently sitting at No. 5 - is projected to host the fifth-ranked conference champion. Win that, and the Ducks would get a shot at Texas Tech in the quarterfinals. Ole Miss, under new head coach Pete Golding, would host the fourth-ranked Group of Five champ, with the winner earning a date with Georgia.
Conference races heating up for final autobids
The SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 champions are all projected to lock in automatic bids. That leaves two more up for grabs, and it’s a three-way race between the ACC, Sun Belt, and American Athletic Conference. Those title games will carry massive weight - not just for the teams involved, but for the entire playoff bracket.
Texas surging, but still on the outside
Texas has won six of its last seven, including a massive rivalry win over previously unbeaten Texas A&M. And yet, despite the late-season surge, the Longhorns are still on the outside looking in.
Based on the current projections, they wouldn’t make the field. Same goes for Miami, which sits at No. 12 - just below the cut line.
It’s a reminder that in a 12-team format, the margins are still razor-thin. One loss, one missed opportunity, and you’re suddenly on the bubble. For Texas and Miami, the path to the playoff might not be entirely closed, but it’s narrowing fast.
What’s next
All eyes now turn to conference championship weekend. The Big Ten title game between Ohio State and Indiana could determine the No. 1 seed.
The SEC and Big 12 races are still influencing seeding and matchups. And the Group of Five battles could swing the final two autobids.
The bracket isn’t set just yet, but the drama is already unfolding. If this is the appetizer, Sunday’s selection show is shaping up to be the main course.