The College Football Playoff is heating up, and history has already been made - just not the kind the home teams were hoping for. For the first time in the 12-team Playoff era, two home squads have been bounced in the opening round. That’s a tough pill to swallow, especially considering the home-field advantage was supposed to be a game-changer in this expanded format.
Now, the quarterfinals are set, and we’re about to see the top four seeds return to action after a significant layoff. That rest-versus-rust debate looms large, especially after what we saw in the 2024-25 season - all four teams that came off a bye lost in the quarterfinals. That’s not just a fluke; it’s a trend worth watching.
This year’s top dogs - Indiana, Ohio State, and Georgia - are all favored heading into their matchups. Texas Tech, meanwhile, finds itself as a slight underdog against Oregon in what’s shaping up to be a tightly contested Orange Bowl. The betting markets are reflecting those expectations, and they’re also giving us a look at how the national title race is shaping up.
Here’s where the championship odds stand:
- Ohio State: 9/5
- Indiana: 3-1
- Georgia: 5-1
- Oregon: 7-1
- Texas Tech: 19-2
- Alabama: 18-1
- Miami: 22-1
- Ole Miss: 22-1
Let’s unpack that a bit. Ohio State, despite being the No. 2 seed and losing to Indiana in the Big Ten title game, remains the betting favorite.
That speaks volumes about how oddsmakers - and the broader football world - view the Buckeyes' overall talent and playoff experience. They’re chasing a second straight national title, and until someone knocks them off, they’ve earned that respect.
Indiana’s right behind them, and while the Hoosiers have proven they belong - especially with that conference title win - they’ll need to keep proving it every step of the way. Georgia sits just behind the top two, and they’re arguably the most intriguing team in the mix right now.
The Bulldogs have quietly built serious momentum late in the season, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They’re playing fast, physical, and disciplined - all hallmarks of a championship-caliber unit.
Offensively, Gunner Stockton may not be putting up video game numbers, but when the lights are brightest, he’s been steady and composed. He’s not the flashiest quarterback left in the field, but he might be the most clutch.
Georgia’s path won’t be easy. A potential semifinal showdown with Indiana looms - and that’s assuming they get past Ole Miss, who’s capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. But if Georgia shows up with the same energy and execution they brought to the SEC title game, they’re a real threat to run the table.
Then there’s Oregon, who faces a tough draw. Not only do they have to get past a dangerous Texas Tech team in the quarters, but a likely semifinal against Ohio State is waiting on the other side. That’s a brutal road, and it’s why their odds are a bit longer than Georgia’s, even though they’re similarly rated in most power rankings.
For fans looking at this through the lens of value - trying to spot the team that could outperform its odds - Georgia stands out. If they handle their business against Ole Miss, their odds are only going to get shorter. This might be the last chance to get in on the Bulldogs before the rest of the country catches up.
As for the long shots - Alabama, Miami, and Ole Miss - they’ve got uphill climbs. Each is facing a top-four seed in the quarters, and while anything can happen in a single-elimination format, the odds reflect just how tough their roads are.
The quarterfinals are where the real drama begins. The top seeds are rested.
The underdogs are confident. And if last year taught us anything, it’s that nothing is guaranteed once the ball is kicked off.
Buckle up - this playoff is just getting started.