LSU’s season has gone from expensive to ugly in a hurry.
The Tigers fell to 6-3 overall and 3-3 in SEC play after Saturday’s 31-13 loss to Alabama in Tiger Stadium, and the defeat left Coach Lane Kiffin staring at a mess that goes well beyond the scoreboard. The loss also dropped Kiffin to 0-6 in his career against Alabama, counting his stops at Tennessee and Ole Miss, and it may have knocked LSU out of the SEC title race and the College Football Playoff picture.
What makes the setback sting even more is the gap between what LSU got on the stat sheet and what it got on the scoreboard. Kiffin pointed to the numbers himself after the game.
“It’s a very unusual statistic, you know, yardage wise 457 to 285,” Kiffin said of LSU’s advantage in total yardage. “You know, comes down to red zone and fourth downs we didn’t make, 0 for 4 on fourth downs … “
That was the story in Baton Rouge: LSU moved the ball, but didn’t cash in. The Tigers went 0-for-4 on fourth down and came away with just 10 points on four red-zone trips inside the 20-yard line. Kiffin said the choice to keep chasing touchdowns shaped the way he handled those possessions.
“I just felt like field goals weren’t going to win the game,” Kiffin said. “It was just a feeling that we were going to need some touchdowns.”
The financial side of this LSU gamble is impossible to ignore. The school paid $54 million to buy out Brian Kelly, $3 million to buy out Kiffin’s Ole Miss contract, an estimated $50.75 million on its roster, according to the Nil Standard website, and a $91 million, seven-year contract to Kiffin that would pay him 80% of his remaining salary if fired without cause. An estimated $4 million went to NIL portal transfer QB Sam Leavitt, who finished 35-of-47 passing for 380 yards with an interception.
For LSU, the path forward is narrow. The Tigers dropped to No. 24 in the AP Top 25, and Alabama, Kentucky and Ole Miss all hold head-to-head tiebreakers over LSU if postseason positioning comes down to that. The Tigers will need help, and they’ll need better football, if they’re going to reach the 12-team field.
Around the league, South Carolina kept climbing. The Gamecocks won their fourth straight game by rallying past Texas A&M 17-9 at home, with Arkansas next on the schedule.
ESPN’s playoff calculator gives South Carolina just a 5% chance to make the 12-team CFP field, but the turnaround still stands out. Shane Beamer made that clear after the game.
“We outscored them 10-0 in the fourth quarter - which, games in this league, it’s going to come down to the fourth quarter,” South Carolina coach Shane Beamer said on his Sunday night teleconference. “You see that every week, and that’s what last night was. So, really proud of our team being at their best when it counted, and that was in the fourth quarter.
Georgia also kept rolling, and in emphatic fashion. The Bulldogs beat Ole Miss 42-7 on the road, snapping the Rebels’ 16-game home winning streak and notching their second straight dominant victory away from Sanford Stadium. Georgia sits No. 1 in the AP Top 25 and is expected to stay there when the CFP rankings are released Tuesday night at 9 p.m.
“Our guys are starting to kind of believe in each other and believe in the plan, so, I don’t think it’s about who we played or any of that,” Said Kirby Smart, whose Georgia team beat Florida by a 27-8 count two weeks ago.
“I think it’s about the culture on our team and kind of the leadership that they go about their work week with. It’s not going to be any different next week.”
Texas, meanwhile, has won three straight, the second-longest active streak among SEC teams, after a 34-20 win at Missouri. Steve Sarkisian leaned into the underdog angle after the game.
“Nobody believed we’d win the game, nobody thought we were going to come here and win the game,” Sarkisian said. “Nobody thought we were we were tough enough at the line of scrimmage. Everyone thought we’d be pushed around.”
Alabama’s path also looks clear after Saturday’s win in Baton Rouge and its 31-20 victory over Texas A&M on Oct. 24.
With games left at Vanderbilt, against UT-Chattanooga and at home against Auburn, the Tide are the odds-on favorite to meet Georgia in the SEC championship game. Tennessee is the team most likely to complicate that picture if it can stay in the two-loss mix and land a head-to-head tiebreak with Alabama after beating the Tide 26-10 on Oct.
- The Vols responded to their 27-24 loss at South Carolina by hammering Kentucky 34-6 in Neyland Stadium.
Florida’s slide continued with a 23-7 home loss to Oklahoma, a rough follow-up to the Gators’ 27-8 defeat to Georgia in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Florida had climbed to No. 8 in the AP Top 25 after its 52-28 win over then-No. 4 Ole Miss on Sept. 27, but the momentum has faded fast.
“I do think when things are going really, really bad, your toughness gets challenged, mental toughness,” said first-year coach Jon Sumrall, whose team plays at Kentucky on Saturday. “We have to respond. You’re either built for this or you’re not.”
Texas A&M’s loss at South Carolina pushed the Aggies into a three-way tie with Arkansas and Vanderbilt at the bottom of the SEC standings at 1-5 in league play. Mike Elko is estimated to have spent $48.25 million on the Aggies roster, according to the NIL Standard website, nearly matching the combined total of Arkansas ($22.5 million) and Vanderbilt ($26.5 million).
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Georgia Fans Wont Like What The SEC Just Did To Sanford Stadium
Georgias road win over Ole Miss kept the Bulldogs rolling, and now the focus shifts back to Sanford Stadium for a Saturday matchup with Missouri on Nov. 14. Its the kind of home date Georgia fans usually circle early, with a midafternoon kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET and national coverage on ABC, plus streaming options on the ESPN app and Fubo TV.
The wrinkle is the line attached to the game, because Georgia is expected to handle Missouri and is listed as a 13.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. For a program that has spent much of the season looking every bit like a heavyweight, the bigger question may be whether this turns into another comfortable afternoon in Athens or something that gives the crowd a little more to chew on. [Read more 🡒]
Georgias Push For Elite OT Just Got More Complicated
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The complication now is that Miami has emerged as a serious threat and is reportedly trending as one of the leading contenders for his commitment. For Georgia, the pitch still comes back to the same core selling points that matter in these battles: team success and a track record of developing offensive linemen. The question is whether that is enough to separate the Bulldogs from a Miami push that appears to be gaining ground. [Read more 🡒]
Georgia Defense Turned Ole Miss One-Dimensional From The Opening Series
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Trinidad Chambliss spent much of the afternoon under duress, and Ole Miss never found much balance without injured tailback Kewan Lacy to help take some of the burden off the passing game. The result was a one-dimensional attack that Georgia could attack on its own terms, turning a marquee matchup into a showcase for how quickly this defense can dictate the terms of a game. [Read more 🡒]