Georgia’s trip to Ole Miss is drawing some odd movement in ESPN’s numbers, and the shift does not line up cleanly with what happened last week.
The Bulldogs were already coming off their first loss of the season to Auburn two weeks ago, but they still sat as the favorite to win the SEC and held the No. 3 spot in the country. Even after that setback, Georgia had been given strong odds to win out, with more than an 80 percent chance in each remaining game on the schedule after beating Alabama, including the road test at Ole Miss.
That’s why the latest update stands out. ESPN has Georgia at just a 66 percent chance to win in Oxford, even though Ole Miss lost to Texas last week while Georgia was on a bye.
I know we have Florida Saturday. But I don’t like this. pic.twitter.com/HRTal1EOC0
- Dukes The Millar Guy (@MDukes45) October 28, 2026
The logic behind Georgia’s drop makes some sense if you only look at the Auburn loss. Ole Miss is clearly a tougher opponent than Auburn, so the Bulldogs’ chances should take a hit after showing they can be beaten.
What does not track as easily is Ole Miss gaining ground after a loss of its own. The Rebels went to Texas and dropped their second game of the season, and while that loss is not a disaster, Texas has not looked like the team many expected after already falling twice to Florida and Oklahoma. Georgia didn’t play, Ole Miss lost, and yet ESPN’s line still shifted in the Rebels’ favor.
Still, Georgia remains a clear favorite, just not by the margin some expected.
And there’s another layer here: revenge. Ole Miss ended Georgia’s playoff hopes last season, and the Bulldogs also lost in their last trip to Oxford in 2024, a game the Rebels pulled away in late and won 28-10. Georgia has now dropped two of its last three meetings with Ole Miss, and after beating Alabama two times in a row, this is the opponent that has recently been standing in the way.
That could matter when these teams meet next Saturday night.
7:30 pm EST on Saturday, Nov. 7.
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