Georgia’s road back to the top of the college football mountain is officially underway, and after a statement win over Alabama in the SEC Championship, the Bulldogs look like a team with unfinished business. Last season’s early exit in the quarterfinals still stings, but this time around, there’s a different energy in Athens - one that says this team is built to go the distance.
The next step? A Sugar Bowl showdown with Ole Miss on January 1.
Georgia enters that matchup as the favorite, and rightfully so. They’ve been one of the most balanced teams in the country all season - physical in the trenches, explosive on offense, and disciplined on defense.
But as we know, in the College Football Playoff, winning one game isn’t the goal. It’s about running the gauntlet and lifting the trophy at the end.
That’s where things get interesting - and, for Georgia fans, a little frustrating.
According to ESPN’s latest projections, the Bulldogs have just a 10.6% chance to win the national championship. That puts them fourth among the eight remaining playoff teams.
Ohio State and Indiana are both ranked higher, which might not raise too many eyebrows given their seasons. But it’s the size of the gap - and one other team in particular - that has Georgia fans scratching their heads.
That team is Oregon.
Yes, the Ducks are coming off a 17-point win over James Madison in the first round, but they also gave up 34 points in that game. Against a team that, while impressive this season, doesn’t exactly strike fear into top-tier Power Five programs. So when you see Oregon ranked ahead of Georgia in national title odds - despite a leaky defense and a more questionable path forward - it’s fair to wonder what metrics are driving those numbers.
Because let’s be clear: Georgia’s path is tough, but it’s not impossible.
They’ll need to handle business against Ole Miss, a team that can score in bunches but hasn’t faced a defense like Georgia’s all season. After that, a potential semifinal clash with Ohio State looms - a heavyweight battle that would test Georgia’s physicality, depth, and playoff experience. But if there’s one program built to win those types of games, it’s the one that’s already done it on the biggest stage.
Meanwhile, Oregon would have to get through Texas Tech next - a team that’s been quietly dangerous - and then potentially face two more playoff-caliber opponents. That’s a tall order for any team, especially one that just surrendered 34 points in a playoff opener.
Look, this is the College Football Playoff. Nothing is guaranteed.
Every team left standing has earned their spot and has the talent to make a run. But when you look at Georgia - the pedigree, the performance, the momentum - it’s hard not to feel like their odds should be a little higher than 10.6%.
This is a team that’s peaking at the right time, with a chip on its shoulder and a clear path to redemption. And if they keep playing the way they did against Alabama, those odds won’t just look wrong - they’ll look laughable.