Georgia Basketball Enters Crucial Stretch with NCAA Tournament Hopes Hanging in the Balance
For the Georgia Bulldogs, it’s officially crunch time.
With just three weeks and six games left in the regular season, Georgia sits squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. They're still in the projected field - appearing in 111 of 113 brackets tracked by Bracket Matrix - but there's no room to coast. The Bulldogs are currently slotted as an 11-seed on average, making them one of the last teams in and one of the most vulnerable to a late-season slide.
Alongside Missouri, Georgia is projected to be among the lowest-seeded SEC teams to make the tournament. In total, 11 SEC programs are currently projected to dance in March - a testament to the league's depth, but also a warning sign: slip up now, and Georgia could be the odd team out.
As it stands, if the selection committee had to make its decision today, Georgia would be in. But there’s a big difference between being in today and staying in three weeks from now. That’s where the Bulldogs face their biggest test.
The Road Ahead: No Easy Outs
Georgia enters this critical stretch with a 5-7 record in SEC play, and the math is pretty straightforward: three more wins likely put them right on the bubble. Four wins?
That should be enough to secure a spot. But neither path is going to be easy.
Here’s what’s left on Georgia’s schedule:
- At Kentucky (Tuesday)
- **Vs.
Texas** (Saturday)
- At Vanderbilt (next Wednesday)
- Vs. South Carolina (next Saturday)
- Vs. Alabama (following Tuesday)
- At Mississippi State (final Saturday)
According to T-Rank, Georgia is favored in three of those matchups - home games against Texas (59% chance to win) and South Carolina (83%), and the season finale at Mississippi State (53%). ESPN’s analytics back that up, projecting the Bulldogs as slight favorites in those same three contests.
But projections don’t win games. And Georgia’s recent form - five losses in their last six - doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. This team has shown flashes, but consistency has been elusive.
Revenge Games and Road Challenges
Saturday’s game against Texas is more than just a must-win - it’s a shot at redemption. The Longhorns handed Georgia a 20-point loss back on January 24.
That game exposed some of Georgia’s defensive vulnerabilities and lack of offensive rhythm. Turning that result around would not only give the Bulldogs a quality win, but also show the committee they can respond to adversity.
Then there’s the finale at Mississippi State - a place Georgia hasn’t won since 2016. The Bulldogs from Starkville have taken seven of the last eight in this matchup, and their physical style of play has often given Georgia fits. If that game ends up being the one that decides Georgia’s tournament fate, history won’t be on their side - but opportunity will be.
The Return of Jeremiah Wilkinson
One major boost: it looks like Georgia’s top scorer, Jeremiah Wilkinson, is on track to return. He wasn’t listed on Monday’s injury report ahead of the Kentucky game, signaling he could be back in the lineup Tuesday night. Wilkinson has been out since February 7, and Georgia went 0-2 in his absence.
Getting him back is huge - not just for scoring, but for the tone he sets offensively.
“He’s probably our best isolation player,” head coach Mike White said after last week’s loss to Florida. “Our best guy, especially against teams that are super extended like that, that force you to put your head down. His speed, of course, getting to the rim and just getting layups.”
At just 6-foot-1, Wilkinson’s ability to break down defenders and finish at the rim is rare. He brings a level of confidence and shot creation that Georgia has sorely missed. In games where the offense gets off to a slow start - something that’s happened more than once this season - Wilkinson’s aggressiveness can be a momentum-shifter.
Still in the Fight
Yes, the recent stretch has been frustrating. Georgia has dropped five of its last six, and fans are feeling the pressure. But the season is far from over, and the Bulldogs are still very much in the mix for a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance - something this program hasn’t accomplished since 2001-02.
A win in Lexington would go a long way. But the real swing game might be Saturday, when Texas comes to Athens.
That’s the kind of matchup that can tilt a season. Win it, and Georgia gets a confidence boost and a quality win.
Lose it, and the margin for error shrinks even further.
Six games. Three weeks.
One bubble. Georgia’s path to March Madness is still open - but they’ll have to earn every step of it.