The Alabama Crimson Tide are staring down a familiar scenario: win and you’re in. As they gear up to face Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the stakes couldn’t be clearer - take down the Bulldogs, and Alabama punches its ticket to the College Football Playoff. It’s that simple.
Under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, the Tide have rallied into postseason contention, and a win in Atlanta wouldn’t just secure a CFP berth - it would likely earn them the right to host a first-round game in the new playoff format. That’s a massive incentive, especially for a program that thrives on postseason dominance.
But let’s say Alabama stumbles against Georgia. Then things get murky.
The Tide would still have a shot, but they'd be entering a gray area where nothing is guaranteed. A potential spoiler scenario could unfold if BYU manages to upset Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship.
That kind of shakeup would throw the selection committee into a frenzy - and Alabama into a waiting game.
Still, there are some strong voices in the college football world who believe the Tide should be in regardless. Paul Finebaum, never one to shy away from bold takes, made his feelings crystal clear during an appearance on CNN’s The Source with Kaitlan Collins.
“If Alabama doesn’t make the Playoff [if it loses to Georgia]… I will be back here next Monday calling for a federal investigation of how Alabama lost out,” Finebaum said, half-joking, half-dead serious. Collins didn’t hesitate to back him up, saying she’d “unequivocally” support the cause.
The passion is understandable. Alabama’s resume is strong, and the program’s pedigree speaks for itself.
But the numbers tell a more cautious story. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Alabama currently holds a 66.5% chance of making the CFP - good for 10th-highest in the country.
That puts them behind eight presumed locks: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma, as well as Notre Dame, who sits at 83.2%.
So where does that leave the Tide? Tuesday night’s penultimate CFP rankings will be critical.
Depending on where Alabama lands, the urgency of that SEC Championship matchup could ratchet up even more. If they’re sitting just outside the top four, a win over Georgia could be the final push they need.
But if they’re further back, even a strong performance might not be enough to sway the committee.
Bottom line: Alabama controls its destiny - for now. Beat Georgia, and the Tide are in.
Lose, and the conversation turns into chaos. And in the world of college football, chaos is never far away.