With one race left in the 2025 Formula 1 season, we’re heading into a finale that feels more like a three-way chess match at 200 mph. Lando Norris leads the championship, but Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri are still very much in striking distance heading into the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. The math is tight, the pressure is sky-high, and the scenarios are wild.
Let’s break down how each of these three title contenders can walk away with the biggest prize in motorsport-and how close this championship really is.
The Standings Heading Into Abu Dhabi
Here’s where things stand before the lights go out at Yas Marina:
- Lando Norris (McLaren) - 408 points
- Oscar Piastri (McLaren) - 396 points
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull) - 392 points
That’s a 12-point lead for Norris over Verstappen, and 16 over his McLaren teammate Piastri. With 25 points on the table for a win, the title is still very much up for grabs.
How Lando Norris Can Seal His First World Title
For Norris, it’s a simple case of “just finish the job.” A podium finish-anywhere in the top three-locks up his first world championship, regardless of what Verstappen or Piastri do. That’s the cleanest route.
If Norris slips to fourth, like he did in Qatar, things get trickier. He’d need Verstappen not to win the race. Anything below that, and the door swings wide open for chaos.
And if Norris fails to score entirely-whether through a DNF or a finish outside the points-he’s left hoping Verstappen doesn’t make the podium and that Piastri finishes third or lower. That’s not a position you want to be in heading into a season finale, especially with two elite drivers breathing down your neck.
How Max Verstappen Can Steal It Late
Verstappen’s path is narrower, but he’s been here before-and thrived under the pressure.
To keep his hopes of a fifth consecutive world title alive, Verstappen must finish on the podium. Anything lower, and he’s out of the running.
Realistically, the Dutchman needs to win the race and hope Norris finishes off the podium. That would flip the standings and give Verstappen another championship to add to his growing legacy. He’s no stranger to dramatic finales-just ask Lewis Hamilton.
How Oscar Piastri Can Shock the Field
Piastri’s scenario is the most complicated of the three, but it’s not far-fetched.
To become world champion, the Aussie needs to finish in the top two. If he wins, he still needs Norris to finish sixth or lower. If he finishes second, he’ll need Norris to be 10th or worse and Verstappen to stay off the podium.
It’s a tall order, but not impossible. And let’s not forget-Piastri has shown all season that he’s not just Norris’ teammate; he’s a legitimate threat in his own right.
What If There’s a Tie?
This is where things get really spicy.
Let’s say Piastri doesn’t win, Verstappen finishes second, and Norris ends up seventh. That would leave both Verstappen and Norris tied at 414 points.
In that case, we go to countback-looking at who has more wins in 2025. But here’s the twist: all three drivers have seven wins this season. That’s unheard of this deep into a championship.
So the tiebreaker would go to second-place finishes. Norris leads there with eight, compared to Verstappen’s six and Piastri’s four. That means in any tie scenario, Norris comes out on top.
Also worth noting: it’s mathematically impossible for Verstappen and Piastri to tie on points if they finish first and second in the standings. So if there’s a tie, Norris will be part of it-and he’ll win it.
History Isn’t On the Leader’s Side-But It’s Rare
This will be the 32nd time in F1’s 75-year history that the championship has gone down to the final race. But only nine times has the driver leading the standings going into the finale failed to win the title.
The most recent example? Sebastian Vettel in 2010. He came into the final race third in the standings, 15 points behind Fernando Alonso, and still pulled off the upset.
The others? Legends like James Hunt, Alain Prost, Kimi Raikkonen, and Nelson Piquet have all flipped the script on the final weekend. So while Norris has the edge, history shows that the last race can be a heartbreaker.
When Will the Trophy Be Handed Out?
Even though the title will be decided on track in Abu Dhabi, the actual championship trophy won’t be handed out until the FIA Prize Gala on December 12 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
The Constructors’ title is already wrapped up-McLaren clinched that one back in Singapore-but the Drivers’ Championship is still very much in play.
Final Thoughts
Three drivers. One race. One title.
Lando Norris is in the driver’s seat, but Verstappen and Piastri are close enough to turn this into a last-lap thriller. The scenarios are complex, but the stakes are simple: win, or go home empty-handed.
This is what Formula 1 is all about. Buckle up.