Florida State’s 2026 season comes with no shortage of pressure, and Phil Steele’s latest ACC projection reflects just how murky the picture is around the Seminoles right now. In Steele’s final conference standings, FSU lands in a tie for ninth - a spot that won’t thrill the fan base, but would at least mark a step forward from last year’s 5-7 finish.
That’s the kind of middle-ground forecast Florida State has been living with all offseason. The Seminoles rebuilt plenty after a disappointing 5-7 campaign, including a 2-6 mark in ACC play, but the reset hasn’t produced much certainty. Analysts and oddsmakers have been split on what this team can realistically be in 2026.
Florida State did bring in the nation’s No. 28 transfer class, and the newcomers are expected to shape the season. Quarterback Ashton Daniels is the headliner, with linebacker Chris Jones, offensive tackle Xavier Chaplin and running back Quintrevion Wisner also expected to factor heavily.
There’s also been movement on the coaching side. Mike Norvell has taken back playcalling duties after Gus Malzahn’s retirement, and Tim Harris, Jr. was promoted to offensive coordinator after working as wide receivers coach last season.
Even with those changes, the questions are still loud. The quarterback situation, a difficult schedule and the sheer number of new faces make Florida State one of the hardest ACC teams to pin down.
Steele’s projection puts the Seminoles in the thick of the conference, but the path ahead is loaded with tests. FSU is set to face Clemson, Miami, Louisville and SMU - all teams Steele has ahead of them - and road games at Pittsburgh and Boston College could matter in the conference race as well.
At the top of Steele’s ACC list, Miami is alone in first. SMU, Clemson and Louisville are tied for second, followed by Pitt and Virginia in a three-way tie for fifth. NC State sits seventh.
Florida State’s spot comes before a group that includes Duke at 11th, then North Carolina, Wake Forest and California tied for 12th. Syracuse, Stanford and Boston College round out the league.
Boston College is the only ACC opponent on Florida State’s schedule that Steele projects the Seminoles to finish ahead of.
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