Mike Norvell’s grip on Florida State football is going to be judged by what happens in a handful of games this fall, and the margin for error is tiny.
That’s what comes with the kind of slide FSU has been on. After the 2023 season opened 13-0, ended with an ACC title and finished with a College Football Playoff snub, the program has fallen hard.
Florida State is 7-19 over the last two seasons, the worst two-year stretch in Tallahassee since 1974-75, when the Darrell Mudra era produced a 4-18 record. Two of those four wins, for what it’s worth, came against Miami and Clemson.
The financial reality is part of the equation, too. Norvell’s buyout would be 85 percent of his remaining salary if he’s fired without cause.
After the 2025 season, that figure was about $53 million. It would be lower if Florida State made a move during the 2026 season, but still would rank among the four largest buyouts in college football history.
Florida State can only absorb so much losing before a change becomes unavoidable. And these five games look like the ones that will say the most about whether Norvell gets to keep steering the ship in Tallahassee.
SMU at Florida State
Date: Sept. 7
This is where the real season begins for Florida State. The opener against New Mexico State comes first, but a home loss there to a team with seven wins over the past two years would do serious damage.
The SMU game, though, is the first major measuring stick, and it comes on Monday night in primetime with no other game in the country competing for attention. A win would give Norvell an early cushion and matter plenty in conference play.
A loss would land hard, especially with Florida State having won only three conference games over the last two seasons. SMU also brings real danger, having reached the playoff in 2024 and featuring quarterback Kevin Jennings.
Florida State at Alabama
Date: Sept. 19
Florida State’s first road test sends it into Bryant-Denny Stadium, where Alabama will be looking for payback after the Seminoles’ 31-17 win in the 2025 opener. The conversation around this game is going to be as much about the coaches as the teams.
Kalen DeBoer was under pressure after that loss in Tallahassee, but he has since put together a stronger run, including a playoff appearance last season. Norvell, meanwhile, enters this one with the hot-seat spotlight squarely on him.
A loss would only turn up the heat.
Florida State at Louisville
Date: Oct. 9
This Friday night trip matters because it’s Florida State’s first ACC road game of the season, and the Seminoles have not won a road game since 2023. That alone gives this one real weight.
If Norvell’s team can win here, it would signal progress. If it can’t, it will look a lot more like Florida State is stuck where it has been.
Louisville is expected to be one of the ACC’s top teams, with running back Isaac Brown and a strong linebacking core leading the way.
Florida State at Miami
Date: Oct. 17
Hot-seat coaches do not get many games with this much volatility. Beat Miami, and the mood can flip fast.
Lose, and things can go off the rails in a hurry. The timing makes it even more interesting: Florida State has a bye week after this game, and that’s the kind of opening some programs use if they decide to make a midseason change.
Miami will not make it easy, either. The Hurricanes are loaded and coming off an appearance in the CFP Championship Game.
And, of course, Florida State has to go there.
Florida at Florida State
Date: Nov. 27
The regular season ends with Florida coming to Tallahassee.
In Other News...
FSU Has A Freak Athlete Fans May Soon See Very Differently
Florida State has spent a good chunk of camp trying to sort out what its offense will look like as Ashton Daniels keeps settling in at quarterback, and Mike Norvell said after the second scrimmage that the progress is there even if the whole operation still needs more consistency. Around him, the program has had a little bit of everything lately, from Eric Luallen being named the new public address voice for FSU football to recruiting activity that included 2028 defensive lineman Prince Che visiting Tallahassee, all while the soccer team gets ready to open against Stetson.
One of the more intriguing subplots, though, is Micahi Danzy, whose development keeps turning heads for reasons that go well beyond the football field. He has added notable physical growth and paired it with a standout track resume, including an ACC and Florida State record in the 400-meter run, and his athletic profile is drawing real national attention as a player who may soon be viewed in a much different way by Seminoles fans. [Read more 🡒]
Florida State Just Landed Two Huge Chances In A Key Recruiting Battle
Florida State has picked up a pair of important chances in the race for one of the nations most coveted young defenders. Prince Che, a highly regarded defensive lineman out of Thomasville, Georgia, is set to hit campus twice this fall, giving the Seminoles multiple opportunities to make their case to a recruit who already has 38 offers and plenty of attention from major programs.
For Florida State, the calendar matters almost as much as the player. The staff sees those visits as key moments in its push for the 2028 class, and Ches return trip later in the fall should only add to the intrigue surrounding a recruitment that is still very much taking shape. With so many programs in the mix, every visit counts, and the Seminoles have lined up two of the most meaningful ones they could ask for. [Read more 🡒]
FSU Faces A Hidden Offensive Question After Tommy Castellanos
Tommy Castellanos gave Florida State a steadier edge on passing downs than the overall record suggested, and that mattered in a 5-7 season that still had pockets of offensive competence. The Seminoles were fifth nationally in passing success rate on those snaps, a useful sign that when the playbook narrowed and the pressure rose, the passing game could still function well enough to keep drives alive.
Now the job shifts to Ashton Daniels, the Auburn transfer expected to take over, and the question is less about raw talent than fit. Daniels brings a different profile as both a passer and a runner, which makes Florida States late-down offense a moving target heading into the next chapter, especially if the Seminoles are trying to preserve the kind of efficiency they found before. [Read more 🡒]