Pressure is building in three very different places, and each one comes with a different kind of deadline.
At USC, Lincoln Riley is staring at a costly decision tree. At Florida State, Mike Norvell is running out of time to steady a season that has already gone sideways. And at South Carolina, Shane Beamer is heading into a stretch where one bad result could send everything spiraling.
On3 reporter Pete Nakos laid out the landscape Thursday on the Crain & Cone podcast, pointing to USC’s massive buyout, Florida State’s October gauntlet and South Carolina’s looming matchup with Kentucky as the key pressure points.
USC’s latest hit came Saturday, when Oregon went into the Coliseum and beat the Trojans 41-27. The loss dropped the 4-1 Trojans to No. 18 in the AP Top 25 and brought a sharp reaction from ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum, who called for Riley to be fired.
"He is 5-15 against ranked opponents," Nakos said. "And they expect to win national titles at USC."
CBS Sports reported that USC could still move on from Riley despite a buyout of about $70 million, and Nakos said the situation already feels like it’s moving in that direction.
"It also feels like we're heading down this path, though, where USC might have to do it if they're just not going to contend in the [College Football Playoff] era," Nakos said.
The Trojans get Washington next, with kickoff set for Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
The Huskies are coming off a 27-24 home loss to Minnesota, but they have beaten USC three straight times. Nakos said another loss would only intensify the scrutiny.
"If Washington goes into L.A. and wins, it feels like the writing's starting to show up on the wall for Lincoln Riley," Nakos said.
Florida State’s situation is different, but just as tense. The Seminoles are 2-2 after losses to SMU and Alabama, and they enter a stretch that could define Norvell’s future.
Virginia visits Tallahassee on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, then Florida State heads to Louisville and Miami before Clemson comes to town Oct.
Florida State fired athletic director Michael Alford on Sept. 14, and Alford had brought Norvell back for 2026 after a 5-7 season.
"I would tell you that he was brought back a year ago in large part because of how high that buyout was," Nakos said.
Nakos also said the Seminoles’ upcoming run could leave no wiggle room.
"If they go 0-4 in October in this next stretch, I think that's it for Mike Norvell," Nakos said.
The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman reported that Florida State is looking into bringing back former coach Jimbo Fisher. Nakos said Fisher’s financial setup is central to the pitch, since he still receives buyout money from Texas A&M.
"You can come hire me for $750K, a million dollars. I'm still getting my $7.2 [million] a year from A&M. You can put all the money that you'd have to pay me into the roster," Nakos said of Fisher's message.
South Carolina is dealing with its own pressure point after opening 2-2 and losing seven straight SEC games. The Gamecocks host No.
24 Kentucky on Saturday at 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network, then travel to No.
8 Florida on Oct. 10.
Nakos called the Kentucky game a major turning point for Beamer.
"I would say that this Kentucky game is as much of a must-win as Shane Beamer's ever faced," Nakos said. "Not because he's going to get fired if they lose, but the unraveling is going to start coming quickly if you look up and you're 0-3."
Beamer also suspended star edge rusher Dylan Stewart indefinitely after Stewart punched Alabama tight end Josh Ford. Finebaum called Beamer the most "hapless" coach he saw after that 49-18 loss in Tuscaloosa.
"I think Shane's doing a good job as a coach right now handling that," Nakos said. "But that just puts almost a bigger spotlight on him and his program."
Beamer’s buyout is $27.9 million and drops to $22.1 million on Dec. 31.
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Beau Pribulas dual-threat ability gives Virginia a layer of flexibility that has become hard to ignore, while the defense has matched that progress by holding opponents to just 14 points per game. Trey Kelleher of Streaking the Lawn frames the Cavaliers as a group with real strengths and a few areas where change could still come, which is exactly why this trip matters for Florida State. It is the kind of road test that can tell you plenty about where a team stands before the season gets much deeper. [Read more 🡒]