Florida State gets Clemson at just the right time if it wants to snap a rough run against the Tigers. Mike Norvell’s team returns from a bye week needing a lift, and the pressure around the program is rising after FSU president Richard McCullough said the program needs to reach championship standards earlier this week.
Clemson, meanwhile, arrives at Doak Campbell Stadium with a 4-3 record and real uncertainty hanging over the program. Dabo Swinney has owned this matchup lately, going 4-1 against Norvell, but this one doesn’t feel nearly as straightforward as the last few.
Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. Saturday in Tallahassee, with the game on ACC Network and the Seminole Sports Network. FSU is a 6-point favorite.
The big Clemson question is the passing game. The Tigers have only two passing touchdowns, the fewest in the nation, and freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds has been handling the job since Christopher Vizzina was injured. Reynolds is averaging 156.6 passing yards per game, so Clemson has leaned much more heavily on the ground game.
That ground attack runs through Gideon Davidson, who has emerged as the clear focal point of the offense. The sophomore back has 492 rushing yards and five touchdowns, and he’s accounted for nearly half of Clemson’s 1,054 rushing yards. He’s also piled up 347 yards after contact this season according to Pro Football Focus, which tells you how much of this offense is built on him creating something out of nothing.
Florida State’s defense will have to deal with that first. If the Seminoles let Davidson stay on schedule and stay on the field in favorable situations, Clemson can hang around. If they force the Tigers into obvious passing downs, the game shifts.
That’s where the Seminoles can make life uncomfortable for Clemson. The Tigers are still one of the ACC’s better defenses, allowing 317 yards per game, which ranks 32nd nationally.
Up front, Will Heldt is the name FSU has to know. He leads Clemson with 22 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and six sacks.
Behind him, the secondary is built to challenge quarterbacks in man coverage, with Ashton Hampton and Elliot Washington III standing out.
Hampton, a Florida High alumnus, is one of the country’s top defensive backs and is widely viewed as a future first-round pick. He has an 83.1 defensive grade and an 85.3 coverage grade from PFF, and he’ll likely see a lot of Duce Robinson, who leads FSU with 407 receiving yards and four touchdowns. That matchup could matter all night.
For Florida State, the path is clear enough: make plays through the air. Norvell’s offense is going to get man-coverage looks, and that creates one-on-one chances for Robinson, Micahi Danzy, and Jayvan Boggs. Clemson gives up just 185.7 passing yards per game, but if the Seminoles win enough of those isolated reps, the offense can open up.
The other side of the ball may be where this game tilts. Clemson’s offense has not delivered the way people expected, and FSU’s defense, which has had its own issues in the first half of the season, gets a chance to reset after the bye. If the Seminoles can keep Davidson in check and push Clemson into passing situations, they can put real pressure on the Tigers to beat them through the air.
That’s the logic behind the pick, too. Norvell is 1-4 against Clemson, and that record makes it tough to back FSU without hesitation. Still, with Clemson’s offense stuck and Florida State having enough on its side of the ball even without Ousmane Kromah, the Seminoles look capable of taking advantage.
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